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do you believe the fresno housing market will continue to go down for the next year

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February 21 2009 - Woodward Park
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat
next 3 to 8 years actually... this will not be over in December, i guarantee it
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February 25 2009
Profile picture for ron160
No...The market has pretty much stablized for quality homes, especially in northwest Fresno. Look for prices to even etch up a small amount in 2010. 
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March 11 2010
Profile picture for CentralValley

Challenges remain for California real

Challenges remain for California real estate

Wednesday, 02 December 2009


At a realtor tour meeting of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors last week, California Association of Realtors Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young told realtors to be aware of the following:


• The state of commercial real estate, now stressed in every category, is expected to worsen as commercial loans mature and more defaults occur in this sector.


• Consumer confidence will not see much improvement because the public will continue to be concerned about unemployment and future job prospects. The index fell from 53 in September to 47 in October.


• The unemployment rate will continue to drop. Appleton-Young said continued job losses are her biggest worry. She expects the jobs sector "will get worse before it starts to get better." She doesn't see that happening unless new jobs are created.


• The budget deficit will continue to be a problem. The most recent estimate is that the state will be $20 billion short next year. While the federal government continues to inject stimulus money into the economy, the state is doing the opposite by cutting services and furloughing employees.


• Industries like construction, manufacturing, retail and wholesale have been hit hard this year, with a similar trend expected next year. Construction is an issue for California.


"We're not building enough to sustain demand and meet the needs of a growing population," Appleton-Young said.


• Expect more foreclosures and price compression affecting the high-end market, as more loans reset. The high-end market should experience double-digit declines over the next 18 months.

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December 04 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

and looking back on advice i gave 8 months ago, i still stand by what i said.

the "new economy" is simply an illusion created by false accounting, lenient government oversight, banks gambling "risk free" short term money available at less than .25% interest on stocks, temporary spending by govt entities(local, state, and federal) all of which is unsustainable, and a plethora of other factors that are tuning this from a correction, into a long downward slog...

if i were going to reverse my position, i would need to see U6 data below 14.8% and stay(showing improvement) there between july-sept next year.

i would also want to see U3 below 8-8.5% by sept/oct., but i feel U6 data is more useful.(google U6)

personally i expect to see 11.5% U3 by march, unless we have just a stellar x-mas season, i would love it if pasadenean could produce an R^2 for me that compares u3 and u6, it is starting to look like a logarithmic curve, but that is silly. the govt couldn't get away with simply ignoring an exponentially increasing portion of the population, simply to make the unemployment rate seem more "manageable"...

could they?
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November 03 2009
Profile picture for sunnyview
I think you are smart to wait. Fresno saw a lot of changes in the bubble and I think it may be a bit longer until it gets back on track. However, I would keep looking because sometimes you can find that rare good deal pop up even in a strange market like this. And looking is free.
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November 03 2009
Profile picture for Fresnosad
Yes. More and more it is looking like 2009 and 2010 are going to bring more depressed news. This is a new economy and a new reality. We aren't going back to 2002-2006 like numbers anytime soon. I "hope" 2011 or 2012 we start to stablize. I am holding off my home purchase til then.
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November 03 2009
Profile picture for cvoc13
Here is something that was only touched on last time OIL was starting to get expensive. But you have to count on this as well.

Outlying areas were built because the price of fuel for cars was low.
IE the Advantage of living further away from work centers was lower home prices. 
What do you think happens to those homes further away when we get to 5.00 a gallon in 2013 or sooner?

IF we have Economic recovery in the BRIC nations as they are just starting on the S curve of growth and therefore OIL USE and if you know about the way that CURVE works we are going to see EXTREAMLY high fuel costs and those houses will be FREE or damn near it.

Unless we get a electric car that gets OIL PRICE down in the world.  I know no one wants to believe this, or even think about it. BUT it is PURE FACT and those unwilling to face it are doomed to be the ones to suffer the outcome. 

Search "PEAK OIL" it is no longer the moans of NUTS (never was), It was 1964 When Shell OIL Geologist (I think it was 64) when he firs talked about it, we are beyond it  (Peak oil) now in 2009 and the only reason we got a breather is because of the recession and that is in part because of the OIL SHOCK prices of 2007.
 
But really think about what happens to those homes WAY WAY OUT THERE when GAS Costs 4-8 dollars a gallon, the higher gas goes, the lower they go.... correct?

The world can produce in good times 82-84 Million B Per Day. The USA uses too much, and China is soon going to BLOW PAST us, and they have the means and NEW TECH to pay more then we can.  We are not the Biggest kids on the block anymore people, WAKE UP.. we have been spoiled for too long, and we are in for a rude awaking. 
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June 11 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley
Also from the LA Times today: Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of Southland

Home prices in certain parts of southern California are now below their 1989 levels that were reached when the last real estate bubble burst 20 years ago. 

When you lose 20 years of price appreciation and equity you know the market is facing tough times.  This story is truly an eye opener and it's too bad the "national association of realtors" keeps running those ads that says your house almost doubles in value every 10 years. 

More lies from NAR! 
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June 10 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley
Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High.

A total of 135,431 default notices were sent out during the January- to-March period.

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April 25 2009
Profile picture for sunnyview
17% is awful. Employment in the valley has always been a little soft especially in outlying areas, but that's unbelievable.
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April 17 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley
California's Unemployment Rate Increases To 11.2 Percent

Fresno County's jobless rate reached 17% in March based on the latest unemployment numbers that were released today by EDD.  This will probably add to to the number of homes going into default in the coming months. 

The state is headed in the wrong direction when it comes to creating and saving jobs and our fiscal house in Sacramento is a train wreck.
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April 17 2009
I guess I am the contrarian here. There may be some additional pressure on the market, but units sold in Fresno are at record levels - but certainly at bargain prices. I believe this market is close to stabilizing - sometime in 2009 as the foreclosed properties are moved off the market - and they are moving quickly.
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March 28 2009
yes..
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March 22 2009
Profile picture for sunnyview
Even worse than the last unemployment numbers. Thanks for keeping up to date. I appreciate the link.
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March 21 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley

State news release about February jobless statistics

The county's jobless rate reached 16.4%, up from January's 15.7%, according to preliminary figures. Both figures were higher than the state's February unemployment rate of 10.5%.

Unemployment percentages from January to February increased in other Valley counties. The February rate in Tulare County was 17%, up from 16.1% in January. Madera County was at 13.8%, up from 13.1%. Kings County was at 16.3%, up from 15.6%.

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March 20 2009
Profile picture for sunnyview
Wow that's high. It looks like Fresno will be going down for the next year with numbers like that.
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March 13 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley
15.7% Unemployement Rate
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March 13 2009
fresno??? yeah probably! there is tons of empty farm land around there right? overbuilding? troubled job market? government budget cuts??


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March 12 2009
Profile picture for CentralValley
Yes
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March 12 2009
Profile picture for sunnyview
Yes! For that answer, I don't even need a crystal ball. I can save it up.
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February 27 2009
yes, but that doesn't mean there aren't good deals available, you just need to look long and hard and negoicate!
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February 25 2009
Profile picture for wetdawgs
yes, but I don't own a crystal ball
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February 21 2009
 
Related Questions
do you believe the fresno housing market will continue to go down for the next year
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Latest answer by ron160
March 11 2010 | 22 answers
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