inflate, deflate or default

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this article is good if you have 15mins to your name, it is worth a read

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October 04 2008 - US

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It is a good article. I really like the points made on trends through a fairly long history.

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October 04 2008
Profile picture for Lady Chattel

Oy Vey.......

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October 04 2008
Profile picture for Lady Chattel

I had an ex-neighbor who had his own "hedge fund" firm as it were.   Well, I recall them spending money, I mean it was oozing out of them.......I hear the tap has run dry.

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October 04 2008
Profile picture for toner cowboy

Inflationdata.com says inflation is up 2077.23% since 1913. Deflation may trend for the short term. Inflation trends for the long term!

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October 05 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

"short term" like 10-20 years?

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October 05 2008
Profile picture for toner cowboy

2 to 4 years

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October 05 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

lol toner cowboy, not even close.

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October 05 2008
Profile picture for mrfnuts

What's missing from tonner's statement is prior to 1913 is inflation from 1813 to 1913 ran at pretty much zero.

 

That said, in the world of fiat currency however, inflation will always be persistant.....

until eventually that particular currency becomes worth less than the paper it's printed on.  All fiat currencies end this way.  There has not been an exception... the USD is only proving to be an exception to that rule until the day it is no longer an exception...

 

 

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

yeah well 1813-1913 currency was tied to silver, the supply of which actually grew at a smaller pace the expansion of production and our trade surplus. thus no inflation. inflation occurs when the money supply grows faster than the production of the economy

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

you could almost make the argument that the USD that was tied to precious metals and the current USD were different currencies.

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for mrfnuts

Well, didn't think anyone wanted reason for this... everyone all was just talking about trends :P

 

 

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for toner cowboy

States & banks also printed money.In boom towns inflation was out of control!

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

nope, just banks. states had to borrow that printed money and pay interest on it, that makes sense right? the govt paying INTEREST on currency it produces and GIVES to banks in the first place?

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October 06 2008
Profile picture for Michinaga

[i]you could almost make the argument that the USD that was tied to precious metals and the current USD were different currencies.[/i]

 

Completely true.  They could bring back the gold/silver dollar and reissue those "real" coins any time.

 

Those of you who were alive in the 1970s when Nixon closed the "gold window" and in the 1960s when they stopped using silver in the coins: didn't the people rise up in protest?  How could the public sit idly by as the government made a power grab like this?

 

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October 08 2008
Profile picture for Mr Caveat

the one thing i never liked about a coin backed by commodities(aside from the artificial volitility of said commodity) was the incredible cost it takes to naturally expand the money supply. for instance a new machine is invented tomarrow that allows ford to produce cars for 1/2 the price. fords output of cars quadruples and so does the demand because people honestly want cheap cars. ford also pads their margins and only charges 30% less(for a focus that is less than 10k)  ford is already an international company, and opts to make a coordinated push into asian markets.

 

THIS would generate huge volumes of capital for the company, and for the govt, but the govt would basically be forced to leave the currencies in EURO or YEN untill they can secure so much gold. if the govt has enough need to grow substantially by organic internal pressure, they are FORCED to buy gold. buying that much gold means people will charge whatever they want and gouge the govt. if we were to go with asset backed currency, i would be an advocate of a crude oil backed currency(because that means we would have the LARGEST crude oil reserve in the world and would always be able to sell that for a profit compared to what we paid for it at that time. otherwise i want to see a currency where the value of "the full faith and credit of the treasury" is valued intrinsicly, ie what are the leasing rights to roads worth, the DC office space, the secnav's hardware and etc... then as the govt infrastructure expanded, the currency base could grow.

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October 08 2008
 
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