Replies (12)
- reobserver
- Contributions:52
How do you buy a house when you don't have a job?
I'm not belittling the topic, but it is quite an important concern in the general economy and seems to be the pervasive idea at this point.
I don't feel that housing caused our recession. I feel that the recession caused housing to fail. If our incomes were high enough, we could bid up the prices of housing even higher than it was. But without enough good paying jobs, the whole mess just turned into a giant Ponzi scheme.
The subprime loans and other such creative lending only extended the end game.
People who made money on housing attracted even more people to speculate on it. It was doomed when the money ran out.
I'm not belittling the topic, but it is quite an important concern in the general economy and seems to be the pervasive idea at this point.
I don't feel that housing caused our recession. I feel that the recession caused housing to fail. If our incomes were high enough, we could bid up the prices of housing even higher than it was. But without enough good paying jobs, the whole mess just turned into a giant Ponzi scheme.
The subprime loans and other such creative lending only extended the end game.
People who made money on housing attracted even more people to speculate on it. It was doomed when the money ran out.
- Jon Petersen
- Contributions:828
10% dont have a job, do. If you have a job that pays 60k a year, and the house costs less than rent, and you feel secure in your job, you buy dont you?
I can tell you first hand experience that construction jobs slowed after housing slowed. The builders were building like crazy, and were too stupid to see it coming. The contractors didnt lay off until the builders had backed up inventory, and slowed the construction. I saw it first hand, and have many friends that worked with the builders, and were laid off long after the slowdown.
The mortgage brokers didnt lose their jobs till the end of 07, but the slide here started in jan 06. 06 was my best year for contracts. I tripled my revenue in 06, which was a surprise to me. (I am a contractor)
The agents, did, however, started losing their jobs right away, but there were so many agents that sold houses on the side that they had other jobs to go to.
I can tell you first hand experience that construction jobs slowed after housing slowed. The builders were building like crazy, and were too stupid to see it coming. The contractors didnt lay off until the builders had backed up inventory, and slowed the construction. I saw it first hand, and have many friends that worked with the builders, and were laid off long after the slowdown.
The mortgage brokers didnt lose their jobs till the end of 07, but the slide here started in jan 06. 06 was my best year for contracts. I tripled my revenue in 06, which was a surprise to me. (I am a contractor)
The agents, did, however, started losing their jobs right away, but there were so many agents that sold houses on the side that they had other jobs to go to.
- Jon Petersen
- Contributions:828
that was 90 % do.
- Jon Petersen
- Contributions:828
the ponzi scheme is right, but the bank failures caused the recession. The losses on housing caused the bank failures. Houses were lost first because creative lending, not job loss.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1074
Unemployment for Jan hit 12.2% in Riverside county. Considering this figure leaves out those seeking full-time employment that have found part-time work and those that have given up finding work altogether - neither group representing potential qualified buyers - and unemployment is closer to 20% than 10%.
And I wouldn't put too much stock in any inventory stats. According to RealtyTrac, only one third of the foreclosure filings in it's database (which are taken from courthouse records) are currently being listed. When 70% of the market is being sold by banks rather than individual homeowners, that's a scary figure.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/21/real_estate/ghost_inventory/index.htm?postversion=2009012316
And I wouldn't put too much stock in any inventory stats. According to RealtyTrac, only one third of the foreclosure filings in it's database (which are taken from courthouse records) are currently being listed. When 70% of the market is being sold by banks rather than individual homeowners, that's a scary figure.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/21/real_estate/ghost_inventory/index.htm?postversion=2009012316
- Reed Rothchild, "notion"
- Contributions:47
I don't buy the 10% unemployment being too much of a factor. That still leaves a lot of secure-job holding people hunting for bargains.
I purchased in the Inland Empire recently and it took many months and multiple offers to land one. They are flying off the shelves.
I purchased in the Inland Empire recently and it took many months and multiple offers to land one. They are flying off the shelves.
- CORONA NICK
- Contributions:2218
A slight rise in the median price sales is not a big deal, a speed bump possibly, or it can also mean that higher priced homes are selling now than before, thus pushing the median up a bit, we shall see in the coming months if the trend continues, I wouldnt bet on it though..lol
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:26010
There is absolutely no way that Riverside County has hit the bottom in pricing of the housing market yet, especially not with what one of the State Assemblyman announced on the public radio today; that over 48% of mortgages in Riverside County are more than 5% underwater, thus not even qualifying for refinancing per the Obama rescue plan.
You will know it is at the bottom when:
1) No more than 7% of ownership units are on the market
2) Mo more than 7% of what is on the market are foreclosures
3) All housing units on the market are closing in less than 180 days total on the market.
4) There is no significant backlog of pending foreclosures, due to lack of jobs or "option payment loans", etc.
5) no more than 1% all of mortgages have been presented 90 day late notices.
6) Z-index for the zip code... has not dropped for 3 months straight.
You will know it is at the bottom when:
1) No more than 7% of ownership units are on the market
2) Mo more than 7% of what is on the market are foreclosures
3) All housing units on the market are closing in less than 180 days total on the market.
4) There is no significant backlog of pending foreclosures, due to lack of jobs or "option payment loans", etc.
5) no more than 1% all of mortgages have been presented 90 day late notices.
6) Z-index for the zip code... has not dropped for 3 months straight.
- SoCalBubbleBoy
- Contributions:18
''I purchased in the Inland Empire recently and it took many months and multiple offers to land one. They are flying off the shelves.''
Your personal experience does not constitute for a recovering market. When well priced REOs are on the shelf, of course they will sell. If I list my 5 series BMW on craigslist for 10k, I will have 100s calling me and it will sell. More ARMS to adjust more pain on the way so get a grip.
Your personal experience does not constitute for a recovering market. When well priced REOs are on the shelf, of course they will sell. If I list my 5 series BMW on craigslist for 10k, I will have 100s calling me and it will sell. More ARMS to adjust more pain on the way so get a grip.
- Reed Rothchild, "notion"
- Contributions:47
Agreed Bubbleboy. I'm not saying we're near bottom. My point is that people have this impression that forclosures are just sitting around the IE for months and in my experience that's simply not the case. Homes are moving. Unemployment rates up or not. Are we near an end? Not quite yet.
riverside county hits bottom?
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- 5.0/5.0
- (3 reviews)
Contributions:828But is it possible to flatten out, when unemployment is above 10%, more foreclosures are on the way, and arent clearly showing signs of slowing yet?
In Riverside county, unemployment rose after the bubble burst. This was due to construction on new homes stopping, mortgage brokers and agents going under, and the effects spreading to retail. Can the housing market correct and help those sectors, lowering unemployment, by the ones who have secure jobs spending money, or does unemployment have to stabilize first?
http://mortgagedataweb.blogspot.com/2008/12/riverside-county-california-shows.html
http://www.inlandsocal.com/business/content/construction/stories/PE_Biz_S_dataquick20.2b155d7.html
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