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what is the real Estate in next 5 years in Antioch Ca 94531

I am buying a house in Antioch Ca 94531.
What's Antioch real estate in next 5 year year?
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October 23 2010 - Antioch
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Answers (15)

Profile picture for sunnyview
No problem. Antioch in 5 years, higher. That still doesn't mean it's a good time to buy.

I will say that even if it goes higher it may not be enough to cover the expenses of buying and selling, so buyers still need to compare the rent to buy cost so they will not be forced to sell in a relatively flat market. 5 years is a long time and the market in NorCal can stay down or flat for that long without breaking a sweat.

See you back here on this thread in 5 years. If you're right, I'll buy you a virtual cake or... If I'm right, you buy me a virtual poster of Chuck Norris. Deal?
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October 26 2010
Do you really think anyone can answer that question correctly? Will you be alive in 5 years? Can you answer that question with 100% certainty?
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October 26 2010
Profile picture for dacolan
Higher or lower in 5 years? I won't pretend to know or even hazard to predict that far out.

What I do know is that Antioch's median has been relatively flat y-o-y, it's unemployment rate through the first eight months of 2010 is right at 13% according to the BLS (and underemployment significantly higher than that), rising interest rates (does anyone realistically expect them to move much the other direction, if at all) will put further downward pressure on house prices in this stagnant economy and CA is the foreclosure/Option ARM capital of the US by a country mile.

I may not be able to call what will happen five years from now, but the fundamental economic indicators strongly suggest prudence is the best course of action considering the "risks that prices drop further and steeply" for the foreseeable future, as Roberto has already pointed out.
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October 26 2010
Roberto,

Higher or lower?
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October 26 2010
Actually, Mr Spinosa, I sold 4 of my 6 homes prior to the crash, including my most expensive one, my personal residence. I moved into one of my two rental properties in Tempe, from my home in north Scottsdale, in order to maximize my cash taken out of the real estate market. I have sat on the cash since then. I wrote about all this on zillow, years ago, I'm sure if you have patience, you can look it all up. Now, I am making offers on homes at 80% off peak prices (mostly condos in associations that can't go FHA, or even Fannie or Freddie. That takes out all flippers and most home buyers as my competition) I will rent them forever. I sold almost no homes for five years as a Realtor, as I told everyone not to buy. However, I sleep good at night, and since I am a tenured college professor, I don't need to run around begging for business.

TODAY: most markets, I see more risk than reward. We have just seen a huge drop in buying, even yesterday national association of realtards clamor about a 10% increase in buying, is actually still down 19% from last year, and inventory is rising. Meanwhile, foreclosures are being delayed as many major banks stop to examine their processes. These homes will come back on the market.

So, in most cases, buying today is not a good move. Note that doesn't guarantee prices will go down, in REAL LIFE, you balance risk versus reward. You can run a stop light and you might get through it fine, and conclude "hey running stop lights is a faster way to get home" you may be right for a while, but inevitably, the inevitable catches up. In most markets, waiting another few months for more foreclosures to hit the market, and price slides (you might notice case-shiller turned negative today) to continue is a better plan. Risk versus reward. say it with me.
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October 26 2010
Roberto Ribas, Sunnyview, Dacolan,

OK, so let's hear your 2015 forecast for Antioch.  Actually, I'll make it easy on you.  A one word answer would be best:  Higher or lower?  I say "higher."  I am willing to toss my hat in the ring, and I'll back that up by saying I purchased additional real estate in the Bay Area this July.  As a mortgage professional, I am also watching/helping a lot of very informed investors do the same.

This gentleman asked a specific question about a specific area.  He doesn't need Dataquick to be regurgitated back to him.  Let's not, for example, forget where the ratings agencies pegged subprime MBS's prior to the crash.  These were "facts," my friends.  And if you were an astute advisor back then, you would have told your clients to avoid them.  Or, maybe you would have just let your clients decide for themselves?

Get back on topic and answer this guy's question.  Quit being pendantic.  If you collectively knew it all then, and know it all now, then your odds are pretty good you're gonna know it in the future too, right?  Truth appears to be on your side.  Now get on with it.  We are dying to know.

Thank you!
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October 26 2010
Profile picture for sunnyview
Ahh, the cough of truth. I hear it's contagious ;)
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October 26 2010
Profile picture for dacolan
Actually, Mr Spinosa, a quick search of these very boards will show some astute observers (cough, Roberto, cough) did indeed warn of the coming collapse years ago. Mr Ribas' projections, backed by fundamental market indicators rather than "beliefs" or "feelings," have proven to be quite prescient.
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October 26 2010
Profile picture for sunnyview
You bet I want perspective, but when you say that "Nobody knows for sure where home prices will be in 5 years, just as they didn't know 5 years ago." I have to disagree.

Anyone who couldn't see the writing on the wall five years ago in 2005 should be viewed with great suspicion when they are casting themselves in the advisor role now. In 2005 the median was about 507K in 2010 it is about 194K. Antioch has had a rough ride and seems likely to stay flat for a while. That means people have time to consider the direction of their market and choose wisely if they decide to buy now.
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October 26 2010
No, Mr Spinosa, I don't believe in telling others what to do. I believe in giving facts, and letting others make well informed decisions on their own.

I'll leave it to agents like you, to state that "nobody knows what housing will do, but I believe it will go up..." Nothing like contradicting yourself in a single sentence!
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October 26 2010
So Roberto,

You're obviously quite confident pointing out the facts; "poor job growth, sky high inventory, near record foreclosures, and an unprecedented 10% of mortgage loans not being paid, there are serious risks that prices drop further and steeply," but it doesn't appear you're willing to extrapolate anything from them and recommend any course of action.  To do so might mean you actually risk being fallable, right? 

My guess is that people wouldn't be on this board if they wanted facts alone --- they can get that from other sites with greater efficiency.  They come here because they want perspective, so that they can take action. 

I'll leave you with another proverb I like, "To know and not to do is not yet to know." 

Respectfully,

Robert Spinosa


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October 26 2010
"we are at a low point in the market right now..." Usually, to make a statement like that a fact, a smart person would oh, I don't know, back it up with some logic and reasons...I guess that might be too much to ask here?

Actually Mr Spinosa, that quote , "buy when others are greedy, etc" has been variusly attributed all the way back to Barron Rothschild hundreds of years ago. "buy when the blood is running in the streets"

The question is, is the blood running in the streets, or just a bad nose-bleed so far? With poor job growth, sky high inventory, near record foreclosures, and an unprecedented 10% of mortgage loans not being paid, there are serious risks that prices drop further and steeply. So, your rather simple basis of "my personal belief" based on nothing more than a miss attributed quote seems a tad thin.
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October 25 2010
Nobody knows for sure where home prices will be in 5 years, just as they didn't know 5 years ago.

Alternatively, everybody knows is that this is a unique buying opportunity we may not see again.  We have the convergence of tons of inventory, historic low rates and motivated sellers. 

My personal belief is that it will be proven a wise investment to have purchased in this period.  Warren Buffet himself says, "When other people are greedy (2005), be scared.  When other people are scared (2010), be greedy."

Best of luck!
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October 25 2010
We are at a low point in the market right now, so it is most likely that prices will rise over the next 5 years.  Our population continues to grow and the recent recession caused a significant slow-down in construction which is bound to be reflected in a housing shortage in the next few years.

This is a very similar cycle as the one we went through in the early to mid 1990's.
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October 24 2010
If you can predict any market for the next 5 years, you can be a very rich guy.
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October 23 2010
 
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