Jeff Brinker

XYZ Brokerage

Email: jeff@xyzbrokerage.com

Phone: (206) 555-1234

Website: www.xyzbrokerage.com

Back to XYZ Brokerage

Back to Results

Tools

Ask a Question
Start a Discussion
Close
Create an Email Alert

Alerts are a great way for you to stay up-to-date on things you care about. We will email you a list of the new items that match your criteria at a time of your choosing.

This alert is for the following:

Topic:
where is the bottom ?

How often would you like the alert emailed?

Frequency:

Immediately Daily Weekly
Maximum 20 emails/day

Save

Cancel E-mail alerts
RSS
Send to del.icio.us
Send to StumbleUpon
Print page

Partner Tools

Views: 1,262
US
State
Nearby States
- Alaska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- American Samoa
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Washington D.C.
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Guam
- Hawaii
- Iowa
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Northern Mariana Islands
- Mississippi
- Montana
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- New York
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Puerto Rico
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Virginia
- Virgin Islands
- Vermont
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
Don't see it?

Find:

where is the bottom ?

sponsored by

Spec_T
Contributions: 2849

close

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 2849

Q&A

:32
Disc

:2766
Photos

:51

View full profile

Aside from the more stable markets in the US which saw very little movement over normal increases during the boom.

I would like to hear peoples opinions of where they feel the "hot" markets like CA, Vegas, PHX, FL etc will hit bottom. What signs will YOU look for that will make you feel like the bottom is near?

November 21 2007 - US

RSS

Replies (80)

Rachel Sartain, "Rachel Sartain"
Contributions: 434

close

Rachel Sartain, "Rachel Sartain"

Real Estate Agent

View my 3 listings

Contributions: 434

Q&A

:77
Disc

:198
Photos

:159

Zillow All-Star

Since October 2009

View full profile

Unfortunately no one will recognize the bottom until it has come and gone.

November 21 2007

K101
Contributions: 6569

close

Contributions: 6569

Q&A

:346
Disc

:6012
Photos

:211

View full profile

I won't consider things to bottom until I after I see the abandoned foreclosures start to actively sell. How long after that....tough to say. I will watch resale prices and probably take a cue from that. It will also depend on what happens to the developers and their huge amounts of vacant or partially built land.

November 21 2007

BuyEqualsRent
Contributions: 1492

close

Contributions: 1492

Q&A

:6
Disc

:1486

View full profile

I won't buy until I see three consecutive months of year-over-year inventory reductions. So probably Fall of 2009.

November 21 2007

BuyEqualsRent
Contributions: 1492

close

Contributions: 1492

Q&A

:6
Disc

:1486

View full profile

And I don't believe the bottom will be "come and gone". I believe when we reach bottom we will stay there for at least 2 years.

November 21 2007

LongIslandBubble
Contributions: 2799

close

LongIslandBubble

Contributions: 2799

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2767
Photos

:31

View full profile

The last bottom we saw here on Long Island lasted about 8 years; I don't see any reason why the bottom of the biggest housing bubble in the history of mankind won't last AT LEAST that long.

November 21 2007

klarek the realist
Contributions: 6673

close

klarek the realist

Contributions: 6673

Q&A

:267
Disc

:6324
Photos

:82

Zillow All-Star

Since September 2009

View full profile

We'll see some false bottoms, like the dolts that are calling now the bottom. As to exactly where it is, I'd go with the Case-Schiller Index. Based on that, we're off by quite a lot, maybe somewhere between 20%-30%. But if you index that across all markets, including ones that didn't "bubble", areas like mine that DID will really take a beating in home values.

If the fed rate stays the same or keeps dropping, this could be close to the bottom in terms of "dollars", but in real value terms all home values will depreciate greatly under that circumstance. If the fed does the right thing and starts jacking up the rates, the bottom will come faster and people will still be able to eat and buy gas.

November 21 2007

LongIslandBubble
Contributions: 2799

close

LongIslandBubble

Contributions: 2799

Q&A

:1
Disc

:2767
Photos

:31

View full profile

Or............

"Martha, that house that I got for $100k less, I could have got for $300k less if I waited until now."

I don't base my decisions on any crystal ball. I do my research using real hard data and numbers. Yes; all areas are different and some will get hit harder than others. The key thing to look at is the inventories; if they are unusually high, don't expect to be anywhere near the bottom. As long as we have all these toxic loans resetting, inventory will be high for quite some time.

November 21 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5292

close

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5292

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:378

View full profile

' Unfortunately no one will recognize the bottom until it has come and gone.'

Especially in CA> the bottom will remain 'bottom' for a very long time. I think
people will have no problem recognizing it ;-)

November 21 2007

Angelique01
Contributions: 2028

close

Contributions: 2028

Q&A

:8
Disc

:2016
Photos

:4

View full profile

I was looking at the chart the LIB posted. How to say this: If you take the upward line and instead of spiking up (and changing the angle) follow what would have been its natural progression, Los Angeles prices should level off at about 2003 prices.

http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/MSA/los_angeles.asp

November 21 2007

Mike2020
Contributions: 741

close

Contributions: 741

Q&A

:39
Disc

:668
Photos

:34

View full profile

You could feel the boom starting as early as 2002. That gave people 3-4 good years to jump in. These are not overnight stock jumps where you have to act fast..

A bottom will be in when suddenly you've been noticing months and months of uptrending data.

However, there are a lot of people who seems to be waiting for a bottom in anticipation of round 2. Look back at history and notice that people learn there lesson for a while after a bubble.

A lot of people tried to scoop up "cheap" dot com stocks during the "bottom" of the market. If you want to see how that goes, check out a 10 yr graph on Cisco (they make wireless routers).. or Celera (they patented the human genome tech) http://finance.google.com/finance?q=cra&hl=en

Even Yahoo.com, Feb. 11th 2000, it was $100 split adjusted.. Today, it's been giving decent returns to people for the past couple years but its still only at $25... Most people gave up on waiting for it to go back to $100..

As housing will never go back to its crazy inflation adjusted 2005 boom era prices because it was unsustainable.. (as shown by the possible recession and definite global slowdown its causing..)

November 21 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5292

close

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5292

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:378

View full profile

"housing will never go back to its crazy inflation adjusted 2005 boom era"

YEah hence the term ''Double-Bubble Loser'. I didnt sell my AOL stock on time in 99 and didnt sell my homes on time in 2005 :-(

November 21 2007

Spec_T
Contributions: 2849

close

Real Estate Agent

Contributions: 2849

Q&A

:32
Disc

:2766
Photos

:51

View full profile

thanks to all for their opinions and answering the question but I have to add...

Rachel are you the type that checks the " I dont know" box in a voluntary survey ?

November 21 2007

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"
Contributions: 2097

close

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"

Kingman, AZ

Real Estate Agent

View my 45 listings

Contributions: 2097

Q&A

:4
Disc

:1850
Photos

:243

View full profile

I don't think that the bottom will be as evident as we may think. Probably at least a year out though, maybe more. Knowing the absolute bottom won't be the main point if you are a buyer. Which is what this forum suggests, though its hard to believe most of the time (a buyer that is). The important thing will be finding the property that pencils out for the individual. ie. investor, developer, home buyer. I would bet a $1K that one can find a house in certain areas that is lower priced now, then the bottom will ever hit.

November 21 2007

caliguy
Contributions: 1283

close

Contributions: 1283

Disc

:1268
Photos

:15

View full profile

Bottom for me is when cost to rent a place is roughly equal each month to the cost to own...not to say the market couldn't easily go down after that, though.

November 21 2007

SoCal BubbleBrain
Contributions: 5292

close

SoCal BubbleBrain

Contributions: 5292

Q&A

:353
Disc

:4561
Photos

:378

View full profile

"I would bet a $1K that one can find a house in certain areas that is lower priced now, then the bottom will ever hit."

Save that for the rainy days, you will need it since you are on commision. Seriously.

November 21 2007

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"
Contributions: 2097

close

Jarrod Chambers, "Gallo de fuego"

Kingman, AZ

Real Estate Agent

View my 45 listings

Contributions: 2097

Q&A

:4
Disc

:1850
Photos

:243

View full profile

bet me then BubbleHead. I would love to gain from it for the "rainy days" I will bet you $1K right now that I can find a property that is "bite in any market" priced. oh, and I will need that on my desk in cash by Monday.

November 21 2007

Mike2020
Contributions: 741

close

Contributions: 741

Q&A

:39
Disc

:668
Photos

:34

View full profile

Caliguy- If you are looking for some cities where Mortgage / Rent ratio is below < 1.0.. You could try the following (it's still based on 2nd Quarter 2007 data so all the ratios will probably get better...)

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/?sort=mortgage-rent&dir=up

Indianapolis, IN

% Income used for mortgage: 11.7
Mortgage / Rent Ratio: 0.65 (Cheaper to Buy - But Lowball For Extra Effect )
Price/Income Ratio: 2

However.. California is still has a long way down from it's boom...

San Jose, CA
% Income used for mortgage: 54.7
Mortgage / Rent Ratio: 2.28 (Much cheaper to Rent..)
Price/Income Ratio: 9.2

November 21 2007

caliguy
Contributions: 1283

close

Contributions: 1283

Disc

:1268
Photos

:15

View full profile

Mike - Lots of great places on that affordable house list below 1 on the mortgage/rent ratio. The ones I've personally been to that I would consider living in are Omaha, Dallas, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Louisville, Kansas City, Atlanta, Nashville, Denver.

I wouldn't mind moving. In fact, we did consider going to the Midwest a while ago. Unfortunately, I'm from here and the family is here so it would be pretty tough to leave. Plus, don't think the wife would like it too much ;) I did "live" on the east coast for a bit during college and loved it.

November 21 2007

UnionCityHome
Contributions: 48

close

Contributions: 48

Q&A

:2
Disc

:37
Photos

:9

View full profile

Bottom is already over last month. All new listings are listed at higher price and inventory is going low. Buy before you feel left out!!!!

November 21 2007

BuyEqualsRent
Contributions: 1492

close

Contributions: 1492

Q&A

:6
Disc

:1486

View full profile

Jarrod, you may be able to find one house. But there is no way you can find an area that fits that bill. I don't think there is one major city in the US that will be more expensive on average two years from now than they are today.

November 21 2007

mpal
Contributions: 10193

close

Norwalk, ct

Contributions: 10193

Q&A

:28
Disc

:9239
Photos

:926

View full profile

I have a bottom

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

me too...its on my a$$

November 21 2007

mpal
Contributions: 10193

close

Norwalk, ct

Contributions: 10193

Q&A

:28
Disc

:9239
Photos

:926

View full profile

OMG is it really?? That's where mine is too!! on YOUR a$$

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

ohhh are we doing the butt? ouh good times good times

November 21 2007

mpal
Contributions: 10193

close

Norwalk, ct

Contributions: 10193

Q&A

:28
Disc

:9239
Photos

:926

View full profile

:)

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

my husband likes big butts and he can not lie

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

wait I think I might have some junk in my trunk

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

LMFAO

November 21 2007

mpal
Contributions: 10193

close

Norwalk, ct

Contributions: 10193

Q&A

:28
Disc

:9239
Photos

:926

View full profile

I know you do..your a super freak a super freak

November 21 2007

Carrie R
Contributions: 7102

close

Port Republic, Maryland

Contributions: 7102

Q&A

:12
Disc

:6756
Photos

:334

View full profile

um..okay ...super freak ouhhhh

November 21 2007

Have a question? Ask it here.

Most Active Real Estate Agents

Conlon A Real Estate

435 listings

Local Expert
Teresa Young

302 listings

Local Expert
AdamShpritz

288 listings

Local Expert
DANIELLE HARRELL

179 listings

Local Expert
Michael Dukhovny

141 listings

Local Expert

See more real estate agents

Related Discussions

Discussion Merchandising Jobs And Mystery Shopping Jobs Board

Posted by jennie6i
4 minutes ago

In Buying Process
No Replies - 1 Views

Discussion Terms And Conditions Corporate Flight Attendant Community

Posted by penny4y
2 hours ago

In Rent vs. Buy
No Replies - 3 Views

Discussion The GOTHIC PROM DRESS LOOK

Posted by moss8u
3 hours ago

In Investing
No Replies - 5 Views

Discussion Smallmouth Bass Fishing

Posted by lynch1u
4 hours ago

In Buying Process
No Replies - 5 Views

Discussion Research Study Shows Progress in Treating Acne

Posted by nathan7k
5 hours ago

In Rent vs. Buy
No Replies - 7 Views

See More

Related Articles about Home Buying

Guide Real Estate Buyer's Closing Costs

In Buying Process
Edited August 27

Guide List of Closing Costs and Fees

In Buying Process
Edited August 27

Guide About First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

In Home Buying
Edited July 22

Guide You've Opened Escrow

In Buying Process
Edited July 21

Guide Picking the Best Comps

In Using Zillow to buy
Edited May 04

See more articles about Home Buying

Current Mortgage Rates

Current Last Week

Get this widget

<div style="width:298px;height:123px;border:1px solid #adcfff;overflow:hidden;text-align:center;font-family:verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:8pt;line-height:13x;background-color:#eff3ff;letter-spacing:0;text-transform:none;">
		<div style="margin: 0 6px;">
			<div style="margin-top:6px;">
				<a href="http://www.zillow.com/Mortgage_Rates/#{scid=mor-wid-lthd}" target="_blank" style="font-size:9pt;color:#36b;text-decoration:none;font-weight:bold;">
				   
						Current
				   
				         
				   Mortgage Rates</a>
			</div>   
			
			<div style="color:#555;margin:5px 0 1px;">
				<span style="padding-left:137px;">Current</span>
				<span style="padding-left:23px;">Last Week</span>
			</div>

<div style="background:#fff;height:60px;width:284px;border:1px solid #adcfff;text-align:left;">
				<div style="width:144px;float:left;">
					<div style="height:20px;background-color:#fff;">
						<div style="padding:3px 0 0 4px;"><a href="http://www.zillow.com/30_Year_Fixed_Mortgage_Rates/#{scid=mor-wid-ltt1}" target="_blank" style="text-decoration:underline;color:#36b;">30 Year Fixed</a></div>
					</div>
					<div style="height:20px;background-color:#eff7ff;">
						<div style="padding:3px 0 0 4px;"><a href="http://www.zillow.com/15_Year_Fixed_Mortgage_Rates/#{scid=mor-wid-ltt2}" target="_blank" style="text-decoration:underline;color:#36b;">15 Year Fixed</a></div>
					</div>
					<div style="height:20px;background-color:#fff;">
						<div style="padding:3px 0 0 4px;"><a href="http://www.zillow.com/5-1_ARM_Mortgage_Rates/#{scid=mor-wid-ltt3}" target="_blank" style="text-decoration:underline;color:#36b;">5/1 ARM</a></div>
					</div>
				</div>
					
				<iframe title="Current Mortgage Rates" frameborder="0" height="60" style="float:left;" scrolling="no" width="138" src="/mortgage/MortgageRateTableWidget.htm?wide=1&region=102001">
						Your browser doesn't support frames.  Visit 
					<a href="http://www.zillow.com/mortgage/" target="_blank" style="text-decoration:none; font-size:9pt; font-weight:bold;">Zillow Mortgage Marketplace</a> 
					to see this content.
				</iframe>
				<div style="clear:both;"></div>
			</div>
			
			<div style="margin:4px 6px 0;height:15px;width:276px;">
				<a href="http://www.zillow.com/mortgage/#{scid=mor-wid-ltgr}" target="_blank" title="Zillow Mortgage Marketplace" style="display:block;margin-left:4px;height:15px;width:145px;float:left;"><img src="/static/images/zillow-mortgage-logo-small.gif" alt="Mortgages, Home Loans, and Mortgage Quotes at Zillow Mortgage Marketplace" style="border:none;"/></a>
				   
				<a href="http://www.zillow.com/webtools/widgets/MortgageRateWidget.htm#{scid=mor-wid-ltget}" target="_blank" style="font-size:7pt;color:gray;text-decoration:none;float:right;margin:1px 5px 0 0;width:80px;">Get this widget</a>
			</div>
		</div>
	</div>

Need a Mortgage?

Zillow Mortgage Marketplace

Competitive rates
Accurate, custom quotes
Thousands of lenders

... and, it's free and anonymous

Get instant mortgage quotes

Loan type
Amount
ZIP code

Learn about Zillow Mortgage Marketplace

Zillow Poll:

Suggested by alanrealtor

When you are Buying a Home, do you look at:

Less than 5 homes

Between 5 and 15 homes

Between 15 and 30 homes

More than 30 homes

Next poll
Suggest a poll

Be A Good Neighbor

Zillow® Advice depends on each member to keep it a safe, fun, and positive place. If you see abuse, flag it. More on our Good Neighbor Policy

© 2006-2008 Zillow.com, All Rights Reserved