Zillow Advice: Home Buying - When will you know that real estate has bottomed out? When it heads back up!

Redding prices are falling ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:51:00 GMT

Redding prices are falling like a rock. Anyone that buys now will have lost their entire downpayment in less than 6 months and never get it back, and Richard knows that.

He is nothing but a fraud and con-artist. He doesn't even make a good salesman as he has convinced no-one of anything that he has posted on this thread. If he were a good sales person, he would at least know that the customer comes first and that you don't argue with perspective clients.

If he really believed all the lies he's telling here, he would borrow against everything he has, and buy everything he can get his hands on in his area, leveraged as much as he can. I know a realtor that did that a couple decades ago and lost his entire retirement, and he is having to work well past his 80's just to pay rent. Yes, he used to own several houses as well as other investment properties, but he convinced himself of the kind of lies that Richard is telling.

You don't need to wait for prices to start going back up to know you have reached the bottom, you only need to wait until it is substantually below the normal inflation line from 10 years ago, and that prices have leveled out for at least 3 months. Houses are not stocks; they are resistant to price change and there can be no sudden rebound.

But Richard is too young to know these kinds of things.

Best line I ever heard from ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:32:00 GMT

Best line I ever heard from an "investor" after the bubble already popped.

"the buyers I'm looking for don't buy based on comps"

Inventory is holding steady ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:21:00 GMT

Inventory is holding steady at around 1500 down from the high of 2200 approx.

The decrease in inventory is a definite positive. In terms of months what does 1500 units on the market reflect in terms of market absorption?

you know all the experts ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:20:00 GMT

you know all the experts then you would think the investors shouldn't be purchasing....but there are some that are....

Actually I disagree fully with the above statement. I think the Single Family Residetial Investor is the most aggresive and least informed of any investor class in Real Estate. Most SFR Investors are fast and loose with their money and tend to be impatient with the market.

The Rate of Return for good SFR is usually low, I tend to look for a basic 1% net return per month, but I see many who are just happy that the rental covers their monthly note, never taking into consideration a vacancy factor, all of which is a huge mistake IMO.

I've been watching "investors" buy (in my area) for the past 6 months, I've also watched values drops and now I've noticed that rentals are contracting.

I don't buy that investors are following a trend "other" don't know about.

Foreclosures here are much ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 04:51:00 GMT

Foreclosures here are much less than many areas in California.Approx 10% of total listed homes are REO.
Jobs? Well we could use more that is for sure.
Inventory is holding steady at around 1500 down from the high of 2200 approx.
We are seeing some investors purchasing here again...granted nothing like 3 years ago but some are coming back and picking up the real bargains....if you listened to all the comments on here and believed them all...you know all the experts then you would think the investors shouldn't be purchasing....but there are some that are....

Real Estate is local....so ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 04:12:00 GMT

Real Estate is local....so I am commenting on my area...I am no expert in your area...where ever that is....Our are has not seen the 50% declines like Stockton or other areas in California...

Maybe not 50% declines in your area, but decline looks like its been fairly significant. What is interesting is that from 2002 - 2006 Redding looks like median home prices virtually doubled (roughly $150K median to $350K, little more then double). Either way many prognosticators are saying we are looking at 2002+inflation pricing. I don't have my calculator with me, but that should bring your median housing under $200K. Median appears to be roughly at $220K right now (according to Zillow which has to be taken with a grain of salt).

My question is... how many of the buyers in your area that pushed the market up were Retirees, 2nd Home owners, etc. Those that are fewer and farther between.

Also what is foreclosure market like, job situation like and most of all current monthly inventory?

I'm willing to believe that now is a great time to buy in Redding, but I need a little more then we are down from the peak and rates are good.

goat person, you are the ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 04:09:00 GMT

goat person, you are the thousandth realtor to come on zillow, and say, "buy now prices are down" etc. over the last two years...

So many of them after their piss poor logic gets shredded result to the same logical fallacies:
1. Personal attack: "you are a bitter renter"
2. Appeal to authority. "I am a local realtor, thus I know more..." [if you know more about your market, then give us some facts to back up your position. I was a paid consultant to evaluate commercial business purchases in brazil and china, I don't live either of those places. I can look at facts and balance sheets from anywhere]

Experts from Phoenix were writing in 2005 that phoenix would never drop (21 reasons to bet on the Phoenix Market greg swann) Experts from NAR were writing that housing would never drop. Are you missing the real estate boom, david lereah, followed by all real estate is local...
Experts from Seattle said seattle was different. Experts from New York said new york was different. (and for reference experts from Spain said Spain is different too)

Can you understand how tiring it gets to some of us who write about/study real estate?

California real estate generally is in a world of trouble; California economy is in a world of trouble, and the california state budget is in world of trouble. I'm dying to see what analysis you have that says Redding housing prices will resist the negative effects of the other three facts I just mentioned.

Love it guys keep it up....Yes ...

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:52:00 GMT

Love it guys keep it up....Yes you are all right.....you know much more about our area than we do that live here...glad you all have it down....if it doesn't feel right to buy now? Don't....pretty simple....no one is putting the gun to any ones head....
If you are paying pennies on the dollar for rent instead of buying? Heck rent...there's nothing wrong with renting....unless you can buy and take advantage of everything that owning gives you....I am curious?? How many of you experts live in my county?? What's that??? None??? mmm....

Real Estate should be looked at as a long term investment...made by people that can handle the responsibility of owning....yes I know many of you don't want that...that is ok....no one is making have responsibility....right?

And you should not take out a second on your home or an equity line and bury yourself....sorry that Mercedes will have to be bought some other way.....Ok I can't wait to hear the response to this one....there's got to be a least a few that think this is bogus also? lol

Let me guess...I am wrong on this one also?

Did someone say Seattle ?

Sun, 11 Jan 2009 03:45:00 GMT

Did someone say Seattle ?

Give back the Mercedes...NEVER! ...

Sun, 11 Jan 2009 03:05:00 GMT

Give back the Mercedes...NEVER! Any self respecting trophy wife would die first or find another husband.