Zillow Advice: Home Buying - Zillow COO on Bottom Callers

"what's going on?" -It is ...

Thu, 07 May 2009 03:19:00 GMT

"what's going on?" -

It is probably the "incentives" on the "buy" side, and the desire to get out before it is too late on the sales side.

No-one said sales weren't occuring nor that the market is 100% REO's, only that prices are still rapidly dropping and 21.9% of mortages are underwater in the United States. (Probably much higher in much of California, especially Los Angeles, Orange County, San Bernardino County, and San Fransisco). But of course that is why I want Zillow to provide the U.S. maps with county data.

Oh, I forgot to jump in: ...

Thu, 07 May 2009 02:10:00 GMT

Oh, I forgot to jump in: Great Job Spence

Yes, every one see the ...

Thu, 07 May 2009 02:09:00 GMT

Yes, every one see the different.

Spencer, This is my best ...

Thu, 07 May 2009 02:08:00 GMT

Spencer, This is my best year ever....just regular sales, last year it was all REO's this year just regular sales...what's going on? Is it the SF Bay area?

my name is not Linda

This is what I wrote to one ...

Thu, 07 May 2009 00:41:00 GMT

This is what I wrote to one of the brokers in Rhode Island who wanted to move some inventory. I never heard from him again. :)

Rhode Island is continuing to go down, and WILL go down until it hits:

Bubble Mania Ground Zero* Price Levels (circa year 2000) + Around 20% (maybe 30%)

I am advising my investing clients to buy at 1998-2002 price levels. You just can't time the market. You bring the timing to you by buying at the right valuations.

Lee Ali
Founder
BankFreeInvesting.com

* When bankers started smoking what they should not have been smoking at work.

Did Zillow publish a "heat ...

Wed, 06 May 2009 23:04:00 GMT

Did Zillow publish a "heat map" with percent of ownership units underwater on a county by county basis across the entire United States?

(Zillow has the data..., except areas where public records does not allow sufficent access to calculate a Z-estimate).

Really would like to see that map! Also one showing how much areas bubble peaked compared to 10 year ago values, and one that shows ratio of present value to 10 year ago value.

I suspect that the areas that didn't appreciate, and didn't bubble are the areas where recent purchases are not underwater, and I expect areas that bubble substantually have a much higher than 22% underwater rate.

Spence -I'm glad you changed ...

Wed, 06 May 2009 22:57:00 GMT

Spence -

I'm glad you changed your perspective from that which you posted on Agent Bob's thread about a month ago!

Really, the 22% underwater ownership households does not suprise me at all! That is only a little over 1/5. People tend to move once every 7 years on the average. And for approximately 2 to 3 years, houses were selling for substantually more than 20% over the actual asset intrinsic value. Combine that with the fact that very few were putting down 20% in those years, but maybe only 3 to 5%. We should expect every house sold in those years to be "underwater". So this should be more like 28 to 42% of ownership units underwater!

SO, less than 22% presently being underwater is really good news!

And I don't think the percentage of those that have fully paid off their homes has changed much since the last census; but I guess we will see in 2011 when the 2010 census data comes out.

Here is a link to the CNBC ...

Wed, 06 May 2009 22:29:00 GMT

Here is a link to the CNBC segment in which I discuss negative equity and shadow inventory.
And here is the Fox Business segment as well.

Hi everyone.First of all, ...

Wed, 06 May 2009 22:26:00 GMT

Hi everyone.
First of all, thank you for the interesting comments.

There's another interesting ...

Wed, 06 May 2009 21:04:00 GMT

There's another interesting chart here that puts the historic homeownership rate in context going back to 1965.

As far as house values have fallen already, this only reinforces the idea of, "Why a 50% Drop in Housing is Not the Bottom."