Zillow Advice: Local Topics - how low will prices go in Jupiter, Fl.?

Dave, Your question is loaded. ...

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:45:00 GMT

Dave, Your question is loaded. What is your address and then the answer can be given. Of course I don't really want your address, but like most cities in the US there are different demographics and markets within each city. The statement all real estate is local really comes into play here.

However, without the specifics and looking at all of the numbers I have seen I think we are bouncing along the bottom, at least here in FL. The bases of my analysis is this...foreclosures are steadily down from 3rd qtr 08, bank inventory is down from 3rd qtr 08. I have interviewed many of the best listing agents in my area and a big wave of REOs are no where to be seen. The banks that needed to liquidate have done so and the ones left seem to be allowing more short sales and holding onto there inventory in an effort to keep prices up. Let's face it if every bank dumped their inventory the market would crash.

Every indication shows we may see an up tick into 2010. But I am concerned about 2011 when most of the 5 yr Option Arms start to readjust. If the banks don't get in front of that it could be an issue, especially if inflationary pressures effect interest rates by then.

By the way, I am one agent that called the down turn in the Summer of 05 and cautioned many agents to lower prices and get real with sellers. Economics 101 is Supply & Demand. That caused the down turn and the pent up demand will revitalize us again.

NETS has a good response. First ...

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:35:00 GMT

NETS has a good response.

First of all why do you ask? From your screen name "davethedeal" it seems like you might be looking for investment.

Trying to time the market for buying or selling is pretty tough. If you are buying or selling out of need, then do what you need to do. If you are trying to decide if now is a great time to buy then I can say unequivicably "Yes!" For one simple reason; prices and rates are low NOW.

Will prices go lower or higher?

If the Gov prints money to cover the deficit do you think it will increase inflation? In the late 70's we saw inflation rates near 20% - that means higher prices.

Do you think the Foreclosure backlog created by the Gov moratorium will eventually put more homes on the market? More homes means lower prices.

If you want my take on it in detail check out my profile I think you can get to my blog from there. But do some checking and form some opinions. Just don't let the analysis paralyze you.

This is pretty general, have you talked to your local guys about their view?

that depends entirely on ...

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:44:00 GMT

that depends entirely on forces and pressures at play from outside the traditional scope of RE agents. agents don't look at the recession, don't speculate on job losses etc. this recession is in the 3rd or 4th inning. expect this to get worse before it gets better

read your newspapers and try to get a feel for the financial positions of major employers in the area, layoffs, pay freezes, unemployment rates... watch trend lines like the rate at which your market is falling (zillow can be helpful with this) watch sales numbers of course, but dont take the news' rosy point of veiw for granted. dig deeper, if they say sales are up, find out up from when, compared to when, what is normal, etc. in short try to form your own conclusions because i guarentee that they will be more realistic than those of the average "local expert agent"

actually, local realtors ...

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:54:00 GMT

actually, local realtors have been pretty clueless at having any idea about there markets. Look at some of the historic gems a couple years ago on zillow:

I would point out the reasons Phoenix was going to fall like a rock, 100 agents would post saying nobody knew the future...

Noone really knows that answer ...

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:01:00 GMT

Noone really knows that answer - you just have to keep watching the market - that's an impossible question to answer, but I would check with a local realtor.