Mortgage Market Update
So, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the markets today. A couple of key reports have come out this morning:
- The Case Shiller Home Price Index for June came out. There’s already been a lot of miscommunication and misinformation about the report. If you compare June to May, there were some areas that were up. If you compare June 2008 to June 2009, prices were down 17+%. That number is actually less than it was the month before, but it’s only a 1% change and the margin of error is closer to 5% (from what I’ve read.) So what do we take from this report? Frankly, not nearly as much as the talking heads on CNBC and others would like. The bond market pretty much shrugged off the report.
- Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected. The main reason for the drop in consumer confidence is because, surprise, people are concerned about jobs.
The mortgage market has basically shrugged off both of these reports and essentially said that we already knew that house prices were dropping and we already knew that people were concerned about their jobs.
Recommendation: My recommendation remains to lock all loans. Why? A couple of reasons: 1) there are some big Treasury auctions this week yet that could impact the mortgage world. 2) The “good news” that we’ve been hearing about lately all has an “asterisk” to it and could reverse itself.