What Impact Will the Housing Market Have on Congressional Elections?
It’s no secret voters in many areas of the country are unhappy going into midterm elections, after several years of economic woes that don’t seem to be getting any better. And with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs this year, the economy and declining home values are taking center stage on political agendas.
With this in mind, our analytics and economics team mapped home value changes by congressional district – analyzing how far home values have dropped in each district since the market’s peak, as well as over the past months and year. Nationally, the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) shows a drop of 24.4 percent since housing’s high note in June 2006, with home values falling 3.8 percent over the past year.
The map below highlights which congressional districts have been hardest hit by home value declines (shown in bright red), and thus the areas where housing is likely to be a hot button in midterm elections.
Hardest-Hit Congressional Districts
Meanwhile, here are the 20 congressional districts where the housing recession has hit the hardest – voters in each of these districts have lost more than 50 percent off the peak values of their homes. Interestingly, these hardest-hit areas are nearly an even split between Republicans (9) and Democrats (11) currently in office.
For your own analysis, we built this handy tool to search for housing data on all available districts (Zillow has data for 311 of 435 U.S.congressional districts). You can scroll through all districts, or select an individual state on the upper right-hand side. Data for each district includes current ZHVI (median home value), changes in ZHVI by year, quarter, month, 5-year annualized and 10-year annualized change, as well as the month/year of a district’s market peak, and how far home values have fallen since that peak. You can also see who currently holds each House seat and their party.
For additional data analysis by Zillow’s Chief Economist Stan Humphries, visit the Zillow Real Estate Research Blog.
What impact do you think the housing market is having on midterm elections in your area? Will the housing market sway the way you vote this year? Drop a comment and let us know your opinion.