August Data: Another Month of Better News
By: Stan Humphries, Chief Economist | October 12, 2009
For the first time since the middle of 2006, home values nationally were essentially flat on a month-over-month basis, with values declining just 0.1% from July to August. The annual change in home values for the US was -7.6% in August with the Zillow Home Value Index dropping to $191,200, its lowest level since April 2004.
Sixteen of the top 24 markets have had three or more consecutive months of month-over-month gains in home values. Three of the 24 markets have had six months of consecutive monthly gains: Boston, Denver and Pittsburgh. The top metro markets with the largest declines from peak levels are, in descending order: Las Vegas (-54%), Riverside (-52%), Phoenix (-47%), Miami (-44%), and Tampa (-41%).
As we’ve noted before, it’s foreclosures that are likely to spoil the party soon. Home sales will begin to drop off now that the bulk of the 2009 home buying season is over (especially with the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit), but foreclosures are increasing in most major metro markets. Nationally, we may see September actually turn in a positive month-over-month change in home values but, thereafter, values are expected to start dropping again, and we expect them to keep dropping until sometime in the spring of this coming year, at which time we will have reached a true bottom in home values nationally.
See details on the top markets in the table below.
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- Categories: Real Estate Analytics
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Landlord Shmandlord » Blog Archive » Carnival of Real Estate #162 on October 18, 2009 8:32 pm
[...] down on August Housing data, as well as a forecast for the next several months, in his post titled August Data: Another Month of Better News. Due to the nature of their business, Zillow has a good understanding of the national real estate [...]
Zillow Economist Stan Humphries on Six Drivers of the Housing Market - CBS MoneyWatch.com on October 21, 2009 8:28 pm
[...] Since home prices have been on the upswing in many markets, it’s a complicated question, but Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries sat down with Alison Rogers of CBSMoneywatch, and outlined six factors to watch: [...]