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The latest Case-Shiller numbers for the month of January were released a couple days ago, and they showed a year-over-year decline of almost 19% in the composite index of 20 markets. That’s a whopper of a decline. Could the real estate market really be that bad? Well, as it turns out, it really depends on what you consider to be the “market.”

According to Standard & Poor’s, the Case-Shiller Index is “designed to measure increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.” It’s important to note, however, that “market value” according to Case-Shiller includes all arms-length sales of homes, even those of foreclosed homes. It’s really an indicator of the change in prices of homes regardless of the circumstances under which they are sold.

What won’t surprise many people, however, is that there’s actually a very large difference in prices between foreclosure and non-foreclosure homes. For example, Figure 1 below shows the difference between the median sale price of foreclosure and non-foreclosure homes in the San Francisco Bay Area. As you can see, these are two very distinct markets.  The median price of foreclosures in December 2008 was 47% of non-foreclosure homes (this ratio reached its zenith of between 75% to 90% during the height of the market between 2003 and 2006). And in December, foreclosure transactions represented 60% of all real estate transactions recorded in the San Francisco metro region, meaning that any measure that includes both types of transactions is significantly influenced by foreclosure transactions.


A measure of real estate appreciation built using non-foreclosure transactions (like the Zillow Home Value Index) is essentially looking at the change in the value of homes making up the black line in Figure 1. By including foreclosure transactions in such a measure (as Case-Shiller does), you’re also looking at the depreciation of homes that were previously in the set of homes making up the black line, but went into foreclosure, thus becoming part of the set of homes making up the red line. Understandably, price depreciation is quite high for these homes given that they move from one (higher) market to another (lower) market rather than simply moving within the same market. Note that even indexes based entirely on non-foreclosure transactions are influenced by foreclosure transactions to the degree that foreclosure sale prices influence non-foreclosure sale prices.  They just don’t consider foreclosure sale prices directly.

To get some sense of the difference that including foreclosures can make on a measure of appreciation, we compare in Table 1 the Case-Shiller Index to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) since the latter does not include foreclosure sales in its calculation (note that the inclusion of foreclosure sales does not account for all the differences between the two indexes). The Case-Shiller numbers are uniformly lower than the ZHVI, particularly in areas with either high rates of foreclosures or in areas where there is a large difference between the median prices of foreclosures and non-foreclosures (indicated by a lower ratio of foreclosure to non-foreclosure prices).

Unfortunately, in combining both foreclosures and non-foreclosures into a single metric, you’re not really getting a good insight into either market. In the current climate, you’re underestimating the decline in value of foreclosed homes and overestimating the decline in value of non-foreclosure homes. More importantly, from a consumer perspective, homeowners probably infer that home price indexes are a general indication of the real estate appreciation that they might realize if they were to sell their own home.  In interpreting appreciation information from this perspective, it is likely that homeowners assume implicitly that they would sell their home on the open market, not have it foreclosed upon.  For homeowners thinking in this way, Case-Shiller is not a good measure for them to use because the assumptions used to interpret the data do not match the assumptions used to create the data.

So, when you think of your “market,” if you think about what has happened to the price that your home might fetch on the open market (and you don’t intend to foreclose), things aren’t as bad as the Case-Shiller Index would lead you to believe. It’s closer to what the Zillow Home Value Index indicates for your area (available right down to your ZIP Code).

Dr. Stan Humphries is a real estate economist and real estate expert for Zillow. Stan is in charge of the data and analytics team at Zillow, which develops housing market data for most major metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S., and provides economic research for current real estate market conditions. He helped create the algorithms for the popular Zestimate® home value and the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).

About the Author

Stan is Zillow's Chief Economist. To learn more about Stan, click here.

  • http://www.zillow.com/profile/Stan-Humphries Stan Humphries

    Hi Jay. Foreclosures certainly are a large part of the resale market (currently about 20% of resales nationally are foreclosure resales). What’s at issue here is whether the price that a home fetches in the market is different if it’s sold traditionally versus as a foreclosure. Our data (posted at the link below) and lots of other analyses indicate that the price is quite different depending on how it reaches the market. If you want to know what a property will sell for in the distressed market, then look at other distressed sales. If, on the other hand, you want to know what it would sell for in a traditional sale, then look at traditional sales. If your valuation model includes both distressed and non-distressed properties, then the resulting value is an average of the two markets and over-estimates the distressed value and under-estimates the non-distressed value. If you think there’s not really a difference in distressed and non-distressed pricing, then you have to overcome a lot of evidence that indicates otherwise.

    Thanks.

    Stan

    Zillow’s recent analysis of price differences between foreclosure and non-foreclosure sales: http://www.zillow.com/blog/looking-for-a-deal-on-a-foreclosure-try-pittsburgh/2010/01/26/

  • http://www.croftsurveyors.co.uk/ Chartered Surveyors Plymouth

    Great article!

    I am an avid real estate observer and I would think that without question the sale price between foreclosure and non-foreclosure homes would be measurably different. My reasoning for this is the property that has a foreclosure against it has owner and finance companies primarily motivated to be rid of the debt and of course the property in the shortest time frame. The sellers do not have the staying power of the non-foreclosure and is not in a position to negotiate for better selling price. The non foreclosure has empowerment to sit and wait for an appropriate offer that closely matches their original expectations.

    Furthermore, some writers have claimed that the market demographics will have a significant bearing on the non-foreclosure and foreclosure properties, whilst this may be significant in identifying the location, I am not certain that the housing crisis and the economic downturn and employment loss has been felt within specific demographics in USA. I am informed that the hardest hit has been the middle America !!!

  • http://massrealestatenews.com Hopkinton MA Real Estate

    Having lived in Massachusetts and being a Realtor for the past 24 years I am very familiar with the Case Shiller Index as he is from my area. I must say that the index is usually pretty accurate and does a good job of calculating trends.

  • http://www.housingblock.com/ The Housing Block

    Yes it is.

  • http://flats-in-gurgaon.webs.com/ Flats in Gurgaon

    thanks for sharing such important information with us,

    thanks again

  • http://www.desertmountainhomesonline.com/Blog/ Desert Mountain Real Estate

    All real estate is hyper local. It is impossible to label an entire region like Phoenix with one score. Phoenix and suburbs is over 4 million people. The real estate market in North Scottsdale is entirely different than the market in South Phoenix.

  • http://www.brunetteescortlondon.com/ brunettegirls

    Really nice blog you have here. It would be great to read more about that matter. Thank you for sharing such data.

    Lucy KELLY

  • http://locationautomobile.org location automobile

    It’s an interesting approach. I commonly see unexceptional views on the subject but yours it’s written in a pretty unusual fashion. Surely, I will revisit your website for additional info.

  • http://www.sheer-curtains.net/ Sheer curtain

    Stan, do not follow your logic. If I’m looking for a house in San Francisco, I do not care if I buy a foreclosure or not. It’s just a house. Say House A and B are identical, except for House A is in foreclosure. If I pay the bank $ 1 million for a house, I think that’s what House B is a “value”, even if the owner bought the house B instead of $ 1.5 million and not sold for a penny less. Great!

  • http://www.dashmob.com Tony

    Great information as usual. I’ve been following your blogs for about 3 months now and I’m glad I do. A fresh point of view and good info. As for this blog, foreclosures and non-foreclosures should be separated into two categories. I don’t think it is completely accurate otherwise.

  • http://www.dashmob.com James

    Interesting read. Hopefully we pull out but I guess it isn’t as bad as I thought after reading this.

  • http://www.LasVegasRealEstateHome.com Paul Francis – Las Vegas Real Estate Agent

    It’s always interesting to revisit posts a year and half later… ;)

  • http://www.replicashermes.com replica hermes

    GLT10a09river20
    it really depends on what you consider to be the

  • http://www.newhomesteps.com rodney@building a new home

    I’m not sure if I trust the Case Schiller numbers. They always seem off to me.

  • Pingback: @010 Top Real estate Sales in U.S.

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