Delinquency Rates for Various Mortgage Types

By: Spencer Rascoff, Zillow COO | July 21, 2008

There’s a whole lot of fascinating mortgage data from Deutsche Bank in this 56 page report.

A few selected graphs:

Delinquencies on Prime Fixed-Rate Mortgages, by FICO Score

  • As you might expect, prime fixed rate mortgages don’t frequently default. Also, notice the high correlation between FICO score and default rate.

Delinquencies on Alt-A Fixed-Rate Mortgages, by FICO Score

  • Look at how much higher the default rates are for Alt-A.

Delinquencies on Prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages, by FICO Score

Delinquencies on Option ARMs with No Prepayment Penalty

  • Yikes, look at the default rates for Option ARMs

Reminder: You can find current mortgage rates and charts, and get custom loan quotesanonymously– in Zillow Mortgage Marketplace.

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Comments

11 Comments so far

  1. yanni raz on July 21, 2008 10:49 pm

    what’s happening with the real estate prices?
    They will come back up soon?
    It’s really hard to get a mortgage today, try hard money loans if you need a loan.
    Real estate is not going anywhere I think, anyone have a comment for me?

  2. Azran on July 21, 2008 10:51 pm

    Foreclosures are there with great prices and mortgage you can get but you have to put a lot of money as a down payment.

  3. Steve Simon on July 22, 2008 6:48 am

    The graphs show what the “Old Men Know!”
    If the mortgage industry low ethic shops didn’t give loans to those who never should have gotten them we would not be in the real estate mess we are in. To be sure there were other factors contributing to our current state, energy price inflation being a significant one; but were it not for the greedy ethically challanged lending practices used by many in the loan industry the trouble would not be as bad as it is.
    The mess they have created will take years to work itself out…
    Steve Simon is the lead instructor of the Steve Simon School of real estate, a Florida real estate school that offers the State of Florida real estate license courses online

  4. marc on July 24, 2008 3:35 am

    well the land price, i mean agricultural land and especially green fields with clean past (no pesticides) should be in hot pursuit because as an old saying “they don’t produce it anymore!…”
    another must have should be Wind Fields for wind parks
    i think with actual fuel prices this is another hot pursuit…
    also lands with stone quarries :) you can build your dream home down there, there’s no need for air conditioning in summer time, you can excavate when you have some spare time, one room at a time only…:)

  5. Shell Smith on July 30, 2008 1:38 pm

    Thanks for taking the time to post those graphs - I am a visual person, so those are great for me. I agree with a comment above that foreclosures are a good way to go right now. I think it is important to understand that they could need a lot of work though. I have found a great site called PropertyMaps where you can search for foreclosures in specific areas, then of course there is zillow. Lets all just hope the market bounces back soon - so we don’t have to build in wind parks.

  6. none on August 17, 2008 12:40 pm

    Look at graph 1, Prime FRM and graph 3, Prime ARM. Look at 650-700 in months 32-33 in each. In graph 1, there’s a sharp drop and then a declining tail. In graph 3, no drop and no declining tail. All the other lines appear very similar between the charts.

    When a 650-700 FICO prime fixed mortgage reaches month 32, its likelihood of becoming 60+ past due drops noticably. Any guess why?

  7. Paul Dunn on August 18, 2008 9:20 pm

    What would be interesting to see would be the ALT-A graph by date the loan was originated.

  8. Bookmarks about Mortgages on September 8, 2008 8:00 am

    [...] - bookmarked by 5 members originally found by tokyo147 on 2008-08-17 Delinquency Rates for Various Mortgage Types http://www.zillowblog.com/delinquency-rates-for-various-mortgage-types/2008/07/ - bookmarked by 2 [...]

  9. Commercial Real Estate Investors May Profit From Increasing Loan Defaults on March 30, 2009 8:50 am

    [...] according to data provided to it by Deutsche Bank AG. While that’s low compared with the home-mortgage delinquency rate (according to Zillow), it’s just short of the highest rate during the last downturn early [...]

  10. Justin Bartlett on May 3, 2009 12:37 pm

    Out curiosity, what is the source for this info? It completely makes sense. Those option arms are scary stuff!

  11. Cyprus on August 14, 2009 8:51 am

    “well, we all know theirs huge benefits to register a company in Cyprus, lol. My account pointed me to a few blogs on the net which i’m rather reluctant to check out as i’ve been so busy lately”

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