Is the Refi Boom Dwindling?

What a difference a month makes.  Last month, refinance requests on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace accounted for 63% of all loan requests submitted.  This month, that number is down to 43%. 

This current split between purchase and refi loan requests closely resembles the mix we see during more “normal” times when rates are much higher.  But mortgage rates aren’t normal right now; they are still at historically low levels.  This chart below shows that the 30-year fixed rate has hovered around 5.00% for quite some time now.

Given the current low rates, I’d expect to still see strong refinance demand, but it has definitely tapered off.  CNNMoney just confirmed that refinances have declined.  The current slowdown makes me wonder:

  • Did everyone who needed to refinance their mortgage already refi?
  • If consumer demand for refis drop, will mortgage rates drop even further?
  • Will the Obama administration step in again to stimulate more activity?  Dan Green from The Mortgage Reports speculates about a “final Fed intervention.”

What do you think?

May 13, 2009

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