Mortgage Market Update

Well, it’s Friday morning and we’ve made it through a week of Treasury auctions, G8 meetings and squabbles over how bad the economy is.   What are mortgage rates doing today?

So far, they’ve stayed pretty stable from yesterday.   A combination of falling oil prices, gloomy economic attitudes, blunt and disappointing earnings reports and a dismal attitude in the stock market helped the bond market make it through a very big week worth of Treasury auctions in pretty good shape.

My recommendation still remains to lock all loans.  Why?  A couple of reasons:

  • A “gut” feeling that the bond market has over reacted to the good news and rates fell more than is justified.
  • The increased call for a second stimulus package will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
  • The growing “talk” about a change in reserve currency (see this week’s Mortgage Market Week in Review for more on that) if it does anything will put upward pressure on rates.

I’m currently estimating a 70% chance that rates will go up and a 30% chance rates will go down.

July 10, 2009

Comments

1 Comment so far

  1. Ryann McGarrah

    I totally agree with you. As of Friday afternoon, I locked in some last minute refi customers who missed out on the first few months of the year, My advise to them was almost word for word what you have stated here. Great post!

    July 11, 2009

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