So, How’s the Mortgage Market Today?

Lots of news happening today:

  • Gross Domestic Product for the 3rd quarter came in on a preliminary reading at 3.6% up.   That’s great news, right?  Well, it’s good news, but look at the temporary stimulus measures that propped that up.   The cash for clunkers auto stimulus program is supposed to have added 1.7% to the overall number.   So we’d be at 1.9% without that.    What do you suppose the housing market would look like without it’s $8,000 version of cash for clunkers?   Yeah, that’s right.    So, besides for the temporary stimulus measures, which are exactly that, temporary, we’re not looking all that good.   Temporary euphoria going on in the stock markets and on CNBC right now though.
  • Speaking of temporary euphoria - the markets are happy because initial jobless claims fell by 1000.   That’s right ONLY 530,000 people got laid off last week.   Whew, that feels better.    NOT.
  • Exxon Mobil’s earnings fell - but remember what oil prices were like a year ago?   No big surprise there.
  • The talk continues in Washington about whether there really is a too big to fail and what to do with the likes of Citibank, AIG, GMAC and the like.   
  • The talk continues about an “extend and pretend” home buyer tax credit designed to push the housing troubles down the road.   Lots of talk, lots of people saying that it’s passed.   It hasn’t yet.    Passed a couple of committees, yes, but a true up or down vote in front of the House and Senate and signed by the President, nope.    When we do have a solid plan, I’ll tell you what I know and what I like or don’t like about it.   Until then, it’s all rumor and innuendo.

So what are mortgage rates doing with all of this news?   Really nothing.   Rates have remained stable today.

My recommendation remains to lock all loans because the potential for an increase in rates is greater than a potential for a decrease.

Stay tuned, it could be an interesting week with the jobs claim next Friday, the Fed meeting soon and just a lot of stuff going on.

October 29, 2009

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