Yesterday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted March 10- and 20-City Composite declined 2.8% and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, both the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 0.1% from February to March. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“This is not only the second month in a row where both Case-Shiller composites show monthly appreciation on a seasonally adjusted basis, but is also the smallest annual rate of decline for each composite since early 2011. Zillow’s April data, released last week, extends this positive trend in CS’s March data, with our report showing the largest monthly home value gain that we’ve seen since January 2006. Clearly, the spring selling season is starting to pick-up and has not yet been derailed by weakening economic data as in the past two years,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “We still expect a national bottom in home values later this year, but there is now additional upside risk in this forecast as tight inventory of for-sale homes, fueled in part by high negative equity which is preventing many homeowners from selling, is creating acute imbalances of supply and demand in some markets.”
“Job growth and negative equity remain major factors in the housing market and ones that will cast long shadows over the recovery,” Humphries added.
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the February Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.