By: Stan Humphries | May 25th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
On Tuesday, May 29th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for March will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from February to March will be 0.3 percent for both the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.
This will be the second month in a row where both of the Case-Shiller composite indices show monthly appreciation on a seasonally adjusted basis. However prices are still down from year ago levels. Most likely, there will be some see-sawing in home prices along the bottom before we start to see a more sustained recovery.
Note, Zillow’s April 2012 data was released today – a full month ahead of Case-Shiller data.
By: Lauren Riefflin | April 25th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
Yesterday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted February 10- and 20-City Composite declined 3.5% and 3.6% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composite rose 0.2% and 0.1% from January to February. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“February’s Case-Shiller indices tell more of the same story: Foreclosure re-sales continued to pull down home prices. Although sales were up in February, foreclosure re-sales still made up about one-fifth of all sales,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Looking forward, we think homes sales will continue to trend upward, which ultimately will result in a slower rate of home value depreciation. But any housing recovery will be dependent on job growth. Continued progress in this area is essential to keeping the housing recovery, such as it is, on track.”
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the January Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.
By: Stan Humphries | April 20th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
On Tuesday, April 24th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the March Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.
While home values are expected to fall further in 2012, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation as the year goes on. The chart below shows the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite HPI (NSA). To give some idea of future projections, we’ve extended the 20-City HPI with the Zillow forecast for year-over-year growth in the national Case-Shiller HPI (since the 20-City and national HPIs track each other very closely).
Note, Zillow’s Q1 2012 data will be released on April 25th – a full month ahead of Case-Shiller data.
By: Katie Curnutte | April 12th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Real Estate Analytics
Every quarter, Zillow sponsors a survey of 100-plus economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts, asking what they think will happen to future home prices.
The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which is conducted by Pulsenomics, has been fielded 13 times since its inception, and we’d like to honor the panelists who have done particularly well forecasting home prices. Without further ado, here they are:
#1 for the 2-Year Horizon Forecast (2010 – 2011)
Nariman Behravesh (IHS Global Insight)
#1 for the 1-Year Horizon Forecast (2011)
Dan Greenhaus (BTIG LLC)
#1 for the 1-Year Horizon Forecast (2010)
Edward Pierzak (Henderson Global Investors)
In the top 5 for the 1-Year and 2-Year Horizon Forecasts (2010, 2011 and 2010 – 2011):
Mark Zandi / Celia Chen (Moody’s Analytics)
In the top 10 for the 1-Year and 2-Year Horizon Forecasts (2010, 2011 and 2010 – 2011):
Paul Dales (Capital Economics Ltd)
John McIlwain (Urban Land Institute)
Edward Pierzak (Henderson Global Investors)
Edward Pinto (American Enterprise Institute)
By: Lauren Riefflin | March 27th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted January 10- and 20-City Composite declined 3.9% and 3.8% on a year-over-year basis. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10-City Composite fell 0.1% while the 20-City remained unchanged from December to January, directly in line with Zillow’s forecast, which we released last week. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“Consistent with Zillow’s forecast, the Case-Shiller index essentially treaded water between December and January on a seasonally adjusted basis and the year-over-year comparison modestly improved. It’s going to be tempting to look at home price declines and see a still-faltering housing recovery, but that’s just not the case,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The reality is that home prices and home sales will be moving in opposite directions throughout much of 2012. Increasing sales volume even in the midst of fall home values is not inconsistent with a recovery. Unfortunately, with 1 in 5 sold homes being foreclosure re-sales, even with higher sales, there will be some downward pressure on prices. That’s not bad news, it’s a sign that the market is healing itself. The only bad news will be if the pace of sales doesn’t increase in 2012, but we don’t currently foresee that happening.”
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the December Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.
By: Stan Humphries | March 22nd, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
On Tuesday, March 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for January will be released. Zillow predicts that both the 20-City and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from December to January will be zero percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the December Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.
Last year closed on a somewhat surprising note, with higher than expected depreciation. While we had correctly forecasted the 4 percent year over year decline in December – 2 weeks before the numbers became public – the Zillow Home Price Expectations survey showed that the consensus among more than 100 economists in December 2011 was for the decline to be 1.97 percent on a year over year basis. The January Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, released on Tuesday, March 13th, showed monthly home value depreciation at -0.5 percent from December to January, representing a 4.6 percent decline on a year-over-year basis. While home values are expected to fall further in 2012 with a definitive bottom probably a year away, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation.
The March 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, administered by Pulsenomics, which surveys over 100 economists quarterly to forecast the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (HPI) for the next five years was just released this week. The much higher than consensus depreciation rates in the last quarter of 2011 will likely impact the consensus forecast going forward. Zillow anticipates the Case-Shiller National Index to fall another 1.5 percent in 2012. The chart below shows the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite HPI (NSA). To give some idea of future projections, we’ve extended the 20-City HPI with the Zillow forecast for year-over-year growth in the national Case-Shiller HPI (since the 20-City and national HPIs track each other very closely).
By: Stan Humphries | March 1st, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch
This April, Zillow, the Progressive Policy Institute and Columbia Business School will host a housing forum aimed at exploring the ways in which the public and private sectors have responded to the unprecedented national housing crisis. The housing forum will kick off the evening of April 4 with a reception and special keynote address by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz who will be speaking on “Housing in a Global Context” as he places the recent U.S. experience in a broader international perspective.
The following morning, the forum will continue with two panels featuring a distinguished group of speakers and panelists who will address public- and private-sector responses to the nation’s housing crisis. More information about the events and speakers is below.
If you are interested in attending this free event, please RSVP here, or click on the invitation below.
By: Lauren Riefflin | February 28th, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch, Real Estate Analytics
This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the not-seasonally adjusted December 10- and 20-City Composite declined 3.9% and 4.0% on a year-over-year basis, directly in line with Zillow’s forecast, which we released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, both composites fell 0.5% from November to December. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“This month perfectly captures why 2012 is going to be a bit disorienting to most consumers paying attention to signals in the real estate market. Existing and pending home sales are up on a sequential basis in January, even while home prices for December are down substantially. It’s likely that a robust buying season in 2012 is emerging, fueled by low home values, low financing rates, and an improving economy, but with so many of these sales being foreclosures, we’re still going to see some modest declines in home values nationally for the full year,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “While some reading the latest home price release could be forgiven for seeing the latest numbers as renewed weakness in the housing sector, the reality is that earlier calls of bottom were premature but the market is continuing to show signs of smaller annualized depreciation rates that we expect will continue across 2012.”
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the November Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.
By: Stan Humphries | February 21st, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch, Real Estate Analytics
The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for December will be released on Tuesday, Feb. 28. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 4.0 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.9 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from November to December will be -0.5 percent and -0.6 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the December Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure resales.
As we mentioned last time, the Case-Shiller indices are experiencing the bulk of 2011 home price depreciation in the last quarter of the year contrary to the trend displayed by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), where the pace of depreciation has slowed since the start of this year with only December showing a significant pick-up in the depreciation rate. The December Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, released on Thursday, Feb. 9, showed monthly home value depreciation increasing to -0.6% from November to December, representing a 4.7 percent decline on a year-over-year basis. While home values are expected to fall further in 2012 with a definitive bottom probably a year away, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation.
Our monthly Case-Shiller forecast is in line with the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey administered by Pulsenomics, which surveys over 100 economists quarterly to forecast the Case-Shiller National (NSA) Home Price Index (HPI) for the next five years. The latest median expectation across all economists was for the Case-Shiller National HPI to fall by 1.97% between Q4 2010 and Q4 2011, whereas Zillow expected the index to fall by 3.5% over the period. This most recent monthly forecast completes 2011 and it seems likely that the year will close out with more price depreciation than even we had anticipated. The chart below shows the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite HPI (NSA). To give some idea of future projections, we’ve extended the 20-City HPI with the Zillow forecast for year-over-year growth in the national Case-Shiller HPI (since the 20-City and national HPIs track each other very closely).
By: Lauren Riefflin | February 2nd, 2012 | Category: Blog, Market Watch, Real Estate Analytics
This Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted November 10- and 20-City Composite declined 3.6% and 3.7% on a year-over-year basis, a sharper decline than what was anticipated in Zillow’s forecast, which we released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites fell 0.7% from October to November. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.
While the Zillow Case-Shiller Forecasts have been very accurate in the past – our median average error is displayed in the table below – we ended up on the bullish side this month. Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. As we had mentioned in our initial forecast blog post, the Case-Shiller indices are experiencing the bulk of 2011 home price depreciation in the last quarter of the year. Therefore, the previous data points offered little information for our forecast this month. In addition, contrary to the trend displayed by the Case-Shiller, the Zillow Home Value Index’s (ZHVI) pace of depreciation has slowed dramatically since the start of this year and was essentially flat in November. These factors contributed to a lower predicted depreciation rate for the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite indices.
“November was a bit of surprise to the downside in terms of Case-Shiller home prices, and unfortunately downside surprises haven’t been that uncommon in recent years,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Some but not all of this strong monthly depreciation can be chalked up to the fact that foreclosure re-sales, which the Case-Shiller index includes, represented a larger share of sales in November than October. But even adjusting for the impact of more foreclosures in the month, this latest price signal indicates a continued weak housing market that still hasn’t yet reached bottom.”
To see how Zillow’s forecast of the October Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.
