Zillow Forecast: January Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.7% Decline from One Year Ago

Next Tuesday, the January Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will be released. Zillow is predicting the non-seasonally adjusted 10- and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices to decline by 3.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The seasonally adjusted month-over-month change from December to January will be zero percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index, respectively.

“Last year closed on a somewhat surprising note, with higher than expected depreciation,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The January Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, released on Tuesday, March 13th, showed monthly home value depreciation at -0.5 percent from December to January, representing a 4.6 percent decline on a year-over-year basis. While home values are expected to fall further in 2012 with a definitive bottom probably a year away, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation.”

The full forecast can be found on the Zillow Real Estate Research page.

Since we began forecasting eight months ago, we have very accurately predicted the numbers of both indices. Results of previous forecasts can be found here.