Zillow Forecasts 3.2% Yearly Decline in Case-Shiller Index

Next Tuesday, the November 10- and 20-City Composite Case Shiller Home Price Indices will be released. Zillow is predicting the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Home Price Index will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7%.

We’re anticipating the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.1% and -0.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices, respectively.

While Zillow still anticipates home values to fall an additional 2 to 4 percent before reaching a bottom, there is light at the end of the tunnel. “Encouraging precursors to a true stabilization of home values are falling into place as the new year begins,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Home sales will show a more consistent upward trend this year, slowly reducing the amount of vacant housing inventory. This increased demand will eventually start to put a floor under home values later this year.”

The full forecast and further commentary can be found on the Zillow Real Estate Research page.

Since we began forecasting six months ago, we have accurately predicted the numbers of both indices. Results of previous forecasts can be found here.