Zillow Forecasts 3.2% Yearly Decline in Case-Shiller Index

Next Tuesday, the September 10- and 20-City Composite Case Shiller Home Price Indices will be released, and Zillow is predicting the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Home Price Index will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%.

We’re anticipating the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.0% and -0.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composite Home Price Index, respectively.

Despite the slowed pace of home value depreciation, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries is still anticipating further home value declines in the coming months. “We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high and as the pace of foreclosures, kept artificially low since the robo-signing controversy, increases again,” said Humphries. The full forecast and further commentary can be found on the Zillow Research page.

Since we began forecasting four months ago, we have accurately predicted the numbers of both indices. Results of previous forecasts can be found here.