Zillow Forecasts 3.5% Yearly Decline in Case-Shiller Index

Next Tuesday, the October 10- and 20-City Composite Case Shiller Home Price Indices will be released, and Zillow is predicting the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Home Price Index will decline by 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index will show a year-over-year decline of 3.2%.

We’re anticipating the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change from September to October will be -0.7% and -0.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composite Home Price Index, respectively.

“While home values are still down on a year-over-year basis, the pace of depreciation has slowed dramatically since the start of this year,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “High rates of negative equity, unemployment, and an increasing pace of foreclosures, which had been artificially low since the rob-signing controversy, continue to put downward pressure on home values. We expect to see another 2 percent to 4 percent depreciation before reaching the bottom in late 2012, early 2013.” The full forecast and further commentary can be found on the Zillow Real Estate Research page.

Since we began forecasting five months ago, we have accurately predicted the numbers of both indices. Results of previous forecasts can be found here.