Zillow Forecasts 4.0% Yearly Decline in Case-Shiller Index

Next Tuesday, the December 10- and 20-City Composite Case Shiller Home Price Indices will be released. Zillow is predicting the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Home Price Index will decline by 4.0% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index will show a year-over-year decline of 3.9%.

We’re anticipating the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change from November to December will be -0.6% and -0.5% for the 10- and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices, respectively.

“As we mentioned last time, the Case-Shiller indices are experiencing the bulk of 2011 home price depreciation in the last quarter of the year contrary to the trend displayed by the Zillow Home Value Index, where the pace of depreciation has slowed since the start of this year with only December showing a significant pick-up in the depreciation rate,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “While home values are expected to fall further in 2012 with a definitive bottom probably a year away, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation.”

The full forecast and further commentary can be found on the Zillow Real Estate Research page.

Since we began forecasting seven months ago, we have very accurately predicted the numbers of both indices. Results of previous forecasts can be found here.