Zillow Forecasts 4% Yearly Decline in Case-Shiller Index

The July 10- and 20-City Composite Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are set to be released tomorrow, and Zillow is forecasting that the 20-city, non-seasonally adjusted index will decline 4% year-over-year (compared with a 4.5% yearly decline in June), but will rise 1.2% month-over-month.

We’re anticipating the 10-city non-seasonally adjusted index to fall 3.4% on a year-over-year basis, but will increase 1.2% month-over-month.

Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries doesn’t think this will be the end of monthly declines. Over on the Zillow Research page, he says, “The continued fears about a Greek default, weak employment growth and low consumer confidence will ultimately translate into weaker housing performance in the back half of this year.  Looking ahead, expect fading monthly momentum in Case-Shiller.”

In order to forecast the Case-Shiller Index, we look at the current Zillow Home Value Index for July (which was released a couple of weeks ago), the June Case-Shiller numbers, and, since Case-Shiller includes foreclosure re-sales and Zillow does not, the national percentage of foreclosure re-sales in July. More details can be found on the Zillow Research page.