Rebecca Carlson's Discussions

I've noticed over the last six months or so, there have been very few desirable homes available in the N. Admiral neighborhood under $1MM.  Of course, everyone has their own opinion about what "desirable" means.  For N. Admiral, that typically means a home with 3 bedrooms up, updated and at least 2000 sqft.  In looking at the current inventory, most of the active homes are either very small homes, fixers, townhouses or homes priced above $1MM.  People want to live in N. Admiral.  An agent told me that she had over 60 people at her open house two weeks ago!  (her listing is still on the market)  When a great house becomes available, it moves quickly.  Case in point:  there have been two sales of the "desirable" homes in the past month around $700K that had offers in a week!  I myself had a listing at the end of last year that sold in 2 days. (listed for $650K, sold for $640K)While its true that people tend to stay in the neighborhood a lot longer than other neighborhoods in West Seattle, you usually see a little more turn-over than you do now.   This means there are very few options for buyers right now and I sense a lot of pent-up demand.  I know many homeowners are afraid they won't get want they want for the home.  But, if you are a homeowner of a so-called desirable house in N. Admiral, take note.  It might be a lot easier to sell your home than you think!  (especially if you are priced around $700K or less!)

Have you check the home facts listed for your house?  It's possible that King County Records has outdated information for you home, which is causing the discrepency in the valuation.  However, as I've stated in other posts, Zillow is not perfect.  One of its biggest downfalls is that it can not see inside your home and compare your improvements with that of your neighbor's.  If you'd like me to run a quick analysis for you to see what I come up with, feel free to email me your address.--Rebecca

In May, I posted a discussion about the lack of options in the $800K-$1.1M range in the Mt. Baker neighborhood.  Since that time, not much has changed in that price range.  Having just did an open house in Mt. Baker last weekend, I can definitely confirm that people are looking for that great home, but there just aren't many options for buyers right now.  In fact, for those in the $800K - $1.2M range, there is practically nothing!  (see list of current listings on link below)If you are a seller contemplating putting your home on the market, and you think your home is worth $800K - $1.2M, what are you waiting for?  Buyers are out there and there is no competition!  Of course, price and condition are still important.  Buyers want to feel they are getting a good deal, but also will jump quickly for that "dream" home.  Case in point:  3708 Cascadia Ave S. just sold for $1.4M (listed for $1.399M) in 11 days.  It was beautifully updated, had views of the lake and was priced right.Mt. Baker Homes

Whether you are a first time home buyer, moving up from a condo to a house, or simply looking for a great home, houses priced under $400K are hot in West Seattle.  There are currently 296 homes available in the West Seattle area I looked at (North of Barton, West of 35th)  Of the 296 available, 28% are homes priced at $399K and lower.  However, 54% of pending sales currently are homes priced $399K and lower.  And sales since June 1st have also been dominated by this price range, representing 44% of the sales.West Seattle is a very large, diverse community.  Its proximity to beaches, many parks, highways, and the airport make it a great location within Seattle.  There's something for everyone in West Seattle, with homes currently ranging in price from $180K to $4.9M.  But, if you are looking under the $400K price range, don't wait too long to make your decision.  Because the house of your dreams might be snatched up by someone else!*Analysis based on MLS data and includes townhomes, but not condos.

I follow the West Seattle market very closely (among other areas in Seattle).  And, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, things are still going well in this part of Seattle.  There are currently 533 single family homes and absorption listed in all of West Seattle (category 140 in the Multiple Listing Service).  There are also 227 homes pending a sale.  This ratio of 2.35 indicates strong demand for West Seattle homes.  The median price of the 533 homes currently listed is $429K.  The median price of the homes currently pending is $339K.  Average days on market of the pending homes is 68 days.  And, as can be expected with such a large area, there are many examples of homes that have sold in a day, to homes that have taken 1.5 years.As for absorption, West Seattle is still in a neutral market.  The high demand we've seen over the past few months has been primarily driven by the first-time home buyer market.  (reflected in that $339K average price of sold homes)  There are currently about 5 months of inventory remaining in West Seattle.  So, why can we have strong demand, yet a 5 month absorption rate?  It's primarily driven by the elongated close cycle of pending homes.  Most lenders ask for a 45-day close cycle, instead of the old 30-day process.  Also, short-sales can take 3-6 months to close, impacting the absorption rate.  However, I believe that as long as we follow this positive demand trend (and, we don't get a large influx of new listings), demand will continue to remain high and the absorption rate should start to decline.

Since May '08, the luxury market in Seattle (homes priced $1MM or more) steadily went down, with the low point being in December.  Since December, sales notched up just a bit, but have been pretty low and flat since then.  However, July saw a big increase in sales.  There was a 25% increase in homes sold over June and a 50% increase in pending sales.  Months of inventory also dramatically fell in July to 24 months (down from 31 months in June).  While the increase in sales in July was welcome news for those sellers, the figure is still 50% less than the same time last year.  Will this positive increase in pending sales in the luxury market continue?  We expect it to, as more options become available for $1MM+ loans, and the positive swing in the stock market over the last month is also an important factor at this price range.  With such a large inventory remaining, prices will remain soft and buyers can move up into that dream home they may have never been able to afford in the past.

A few weeks ago, I posted a story about how the luxury market in Seattle did well in July.  In today's Seattle Times, the front page story was about "hot" sales in August.  According to the article, August was another great month for the market all around, but especially the luxury market in both Seattle and the Eastside.  While we know the 1st time home buyers have really been driving the market thanks to the tax credit, it's great to hear that the market is improving at all price points!  Which areas have seen the biggest jump?  West Bellevue/Medina and Queen Anne have seen the biggest jump in sales.  And, for the first time in a long time, there seems to the makings of a sellers market - more buyers than homes available. Where are some of the Seattle neighborhoods I see pent-up demand?  N. Capitol Hill and Mt. Baker are tops on my list.  There are big gaps in desirable homes priced between $900K - $1.2M in these neighborhoods and lots of buyers driving around waiting for their "move up" home.

Yes, I agree the impact of the foreclosure nightmare in the Greater Seattle area is relatively small compared to the rest of the country.  Sam, did your analysis include short-sales?  It seems like short sales are still fairly promenient on the Eastside and some surrounding rural areas.