Rob Cochems's Discussions

I really do not understand why all of you are so negative.  If you buy a home now and actually live in it for the rest of your life, instead of trying to make a quick dollar.  How does it not make sense to buy now?  Yeah the market will fall some more, but if you find the house of your dreams, why would you wait?  While you’re better off paying a lower price, no one knows when prices will hit bottom until after they have started rising again. By then, it’s too late. Trying to buy a home at the exact right time is no different than trying to time the stock market. It’s a losing bet.  

What do price declines in the short term matter if you live in your home for over 10 years?  Yeah prices are declining, but they will go back up, eventually.  I don't understand why you would sit there praying for the housing market to completely crash, you are only wishing pain on yourself.  Seems weird to me.

You didn't answer my question though, what is the harm of buying a home now that you plan to keep for a lifetime?  You can sit and wait longer, and maybe find something lower priced that you like just as much, but what is the harm of a short term decline in your property value?  Assuming you are locked into a nice low 30 year fixed rate.

Yes you will pay a cheaper priceYes your payments will be lowerYour property tax reasoning makes no sense, if the value of your home declines you have it reassed and you pay the lower taxes.However the longer you wait the more you pay to Uncle Sam, last I checked renters are not allowed to write off their rent.  I guess it comes down to personal preference.  I would rather have my money going towards the payoff of something I love, that I know in 10 years from now will be worth more then what I originally paid for it.   Then paying a landlord for nothing, and paying Uncle Sam unnecessary taxes, while I wait to get a better deal then my neighbor.  

Over 40% of homes are owned free and clear.  A large chunk of homeowners do own their homes for a lifetime.  If you are going to bounce around like that, then I agree why bother.  If your job is not solid, you shouldn't even be considering buying ever.  However, it doesn't matter at what price you buy if you lose your job and can't find another, you are going to lose your home.

30% of owner occupied, that does not include second homes,  or rentals. Um...the last 6 months I have helped countless people reduce their property taxes, it isn't that hard to do. I cannot convince people that see a home for nothing more then the price they paid per Sq. Ft. To others it means a little more then that.  Maybe when you guys do buy you will realize that.

One last point, you would all have to agree that inflation is out of control.  How do you control inflation?  You raise rates.  If you are waiting for the perfect price, you could be flirting with disaster.  You spent all that time waiting and now you can't qualify, because you can't afford the payment.  It is a fairly recent phenomenon, that 30 year fixed rate mortgages have been under 8%, and it wasn't too long ago that they hit 20%, in a similar economic situation to this.

Keep wishing for the death of the American economy boys.  Oh by the way I am not a realtor. I am a Broker. Spleng, I don't make commissions, I am salary, and I am doing fine, luckily there are a lot of people lookig to buy right now.  So business is surprisingly good, and it will only get better my friends.

Real estate contributes 10% of the total U.S. economy's output. If real estate declines, so do construction jobs, thus potentially increasing unemployment.A decline in real estate sales evenutally leads to a decline in real estate prices. This then reduces the value of everyone’s homes, whether they are actively selling it or not. This then reduces the amount of home equity loans the homeowner can get. This, then, reduces consumer spending.Over 70% of the U.S. economy is based on personal consumption. A reduction in consumer spending will contribute to a downward spiral in the economy. This results in further unemployment, further reduction in income, and further reduction in consumer spending.

I would never say that it is as good as it was even a year ago.  Thats why I said business was suprisingly good.  In the last 3 months though I have seen a huge increase in demand, especially among first time home buyers.  I don't disagree with you guys that values will continue to fall for a little while longer, but we are closer to the bottom then you guys think.  In the last two months I have watched 4 friends sell their houses in under a week, and 2 of them even had back up offers at higher prices, but they went with the buyer that had the highest credit standards.