Rob Cochems's Discussions

I am not nestalgic, I am actually excited.  I used to be on your guys side.  You have no idea how bad this industry was in October.  Completely dead, no business anywhere.  In the last couple of months, business has just continually increased. It has been a small correction, all the figures they report about home sales are artifically low.  I don't remember what they reported as a decline in home values.  Something like 20% in the west region right?  Bull crap, prices are down 30-50% even more in some cases.  Just did a purchase for a customer in Laguna Niguel, the home was bought 2 years ago for $1.6 mil.  He bought it on short sale for $700k, maybe my math is wrong since you guys are economic graduates, but that is almost a 60% decline in prices in less then a year.  A small correction???

I used to think the market was a long way off from a recover, bought from what I have seen happen here with prices and sales the tide is changing.  Now of course other markets are different stories, some will correct faster then others, but it is a start.

bad typing there sorry

it was pretty good wasn't it

nationally I would agree with you, but certain local markets are changing for the better.  Every month we are issued a list by count of severly depressed housing markets, which restricts our lending abilities in these counties.  Two states that have been especially hard hit, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I know the declines in value are not mainly form the housing bubble, these states every month more and more counties come off the severly depressed markets list.  Shows me when the price is right people buy, and certain local areas have hit those price points.  Some places have a ways to go, others don't.

I can't legally send you a link of a certain lenders proprietary data, bound by contracts.  But here is a site that has Wells Fargo's published for California. http://blownmortgage.com/2008/02/27/wells-fargo-names-most-of-california-severely-distressed/

I got some major concerns for Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.  But that in no means will stall other areas from a recovery.  I know a lot of people that moved out to the Phoenix area in 05, 06 and bought ridiculously priced homes, all to just walk away from it and come back here to buy a Condo or rent.  It will be awhile before those areas recover, but on the other side it helps out with SoCal, building up the poulation again.

Wow you guys just blast home owners that are happy with their purchase.  guavaboy will be in a good position in the years to come. Its just a matter of when.

All I will disagree with there is (a) real estate is local.  How do explain the differences in delines in different areas?  How to do you explain that some areas increased way too rapidly, while others did not?  Why are areas still aprreaciating in this market?

Of course national trends affect localities, to say you are immune is only ignorance.  But good local markets usually take longer to be affected and rebound significantly faster.  I ask you to look at Texas though and explain to me why some counties are in decline and some are still aprreciating.  The only conclusion I can draw from that is that people want to live in those areas that are appreciating and in the others people just want out.  Which makes it local.  I can't say these counties won't be affected, but I guarantee you there will be plenty of local areas that see no price declines what-so-ever.