SoCalBubbleHead's Discussions

But Robert Shiller is ALWAYS right and is NEVER wrong.  According to you doomers, he is a genius.  If he says that we should bail out homeowners who got a HELOC to buy a new Hummer, then that is what we shall do. 

Don't mind space acer.  He lives in the past... in 1998. 

"Actually year over year inflation accumlated is 30%... yes 30%... (EXCLUDING FOOD AND ENRGY PRICES)

Salaries vs house prices and inflation:During the housing bubble (approximately 2001-2006) in some 'bubble areas' house prices rose much faster than salaries. Adjusted for inflation, salaries have actually gone down. Since then house prices have fallen, in those bubble areas up to 20%, in some isolated cases as much as 50%.The US government reports inflation using a formula that excludes the cost of food and energy. The real inflation figure is several percent higher than reported by the government. This means that the house prices are not as inflated as you may think.Example: if a house cost $100k in 1999, went up to $300k in 2006, and dropped then to $200k in 2008, then that is 100% increase over 9 years or 8% annually (on average). The goverment's CPI index would say that $100k in 1999 are $130k in 2008 (http://www.westegg.com/inflation/), because they tell you inflation is 4%. If you include food and energy, inflation is higher. Maybe 8%? Suddenly an annual gain of 8% of that house does not look reasonable!In fact, if bought at a reasonable price, real estate is an excellent hedge against inflation: Over the past 50 years, on average real estate appreciated one percent above inflation.LINK 

Inflation Grew in Jan., Led by Food, Health CostsInflation jumped by a bigger-than-expected amount in January, with large increases in the cost of food and health care, the government reported Wednesday.The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index posted a gain of 0.4 percent last month, matching the December increase.Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed an increase of 0.3 percent, the biggest jump in seven months. The cost of clothing, education, lodging and tobacco also increased.LINK  

I am done with this conversation.  Silly Space Acer, he actually thinks that inflation is much lower than it is.  I guess he does not buy food, electric, gas, etc.  Keep cherry picking your inflation data.  Hey, I have an idea, let's only include electronics, which only go down in price.  THen we can have a negative inflation rate!  How about that????

If house prices only follow the inflationr ate, then house prices will be HIGHER if the inflation rate is higher.  Otherwise that chart you post 10,000 times a day is useless. 

Have your agent list your house as a short sale/ pre-foreclisure.  A lot of stupid buyers think that these houses are bargains and will bid on them in a blink of an eye.  It might very well get you an offer.  And if you are not in pre-foreclusre, don't worry.  You can do it anyway. Good luck!

Once you make a bid, you can't lower it because then you will piss of the sellers.  Either offer what they are asking or look elsewhere. 

But Rob, prices are UP In the north east!  Just because Phoenix is down the toilet does not mean the rest of the country is.  ANd honestly, all of your posts are starting to sound exactly the same, as I have seen you write everyhting in your original post dozens of time.  To save time, I recommend you copy and paste everyhting into a Word document and just post it right here on Zillow 3 times a week.