Roberto Ribas's Discussions

its really quite simple: throughout history, buying a home has rarely cost much more than renting it. And I mean buying it the old fashioned way, 20% down, 30yr fixed rate. In fact, many times and places, buying has resulted in a lower monthly payment. I purchased 5 homes in phoenix that way during the late 80's and early 90's. Then in the last 5 years, prices skyrocketed while rents barely budged. It no longer made (and still doesn't make) any sense. I sold 3 of the homes, and paid the other 2 off with the bubble money.Now inventory is skyrocketing, foreclosures are skyrocketing, and monthly sales are plunging, and credit is getting tighter. Did any of you realtor types, (OK full disclosure: i have my license too) ever understand economics? suppy and demand? The fact the bubble bloggers missed the precise top of the bubble does not mean they were incorrect in predicting the impending swandive of housing... stay tuned and keep watching!

let us recap the salient facts:1. inventory! say it loud! record numbers of homes for sale.2. Foreclosures: climbing by grand percentages each quarter, both filings and actual takings.3. Bank inventory: these are must sell homes, and the numbers are growing each month4. sales velocity: slowing every single month!5. Credit: we just had the fastest tightening of credit availability ever in the last 45 days... this means less buyers going forwardWhat do all of these indicators mean for the future of housing prices? any simpleton with basic econ should be able to see the future of this...buying in the next couple of years would not be intelligent

wow another realtor on here!hmmm my previous posts have given 5 good solid reasons why prices will decline; between the 2 of you, how many reasons have you come up with to refute my logic??ZEROThey don't have to take my percent prediction to heart, just analyze the 5 reasons I have given driving prices down in the future:1. Increasing inventory 2. Increasing Foreclosure 3. Increasing REO discounted properties 4. Sales have slumped below 2001 levels 5. ARM resets are still increasing...When most of those indicators begin returning to nuetral, we will be nearer to a bottom; When purchase price divided by rent or purchase price divided by income are closer to their historical norms, those would be indicators to start thinking about. Sorry to overwhelm you guys with analysis, go ahead and spread some sunshine on the dogs whatever

yeah lkbryant? then read up on the real estate collapse in Japan over the last decade, or denmark. USA prices disconnected even more then those 2 countries from underlying fundamentals...It is actually quite simple, calculate the payment with a fixed rate mortgage, then comp the rent of a similar house. with taxes and insurance, how far away from making any money on a monthly basis are you? for 100 years, these 2 numbers have been fairly close. Now, in most parts of the USA the purchase price is dramatically greater then can be justified by rent. I live in Phoenix, I made a ton of money buying homes out of the crash in the late 80's. I sold all but 2 of them by 05. There will be plenty of time to buy when the factors I mentioned start to come back towards buy signals; With the crazy and climbing inventory, we aren't going to run out of homes for sale for years, I too am a realtor, and sales in september are running slower then any other september before 2000; Don't get caught by the nonsense from the happy dumb smiling sunshine crowd, every single possible indicator is flashing a bright red.

"long term money generating machine"well, that is if you don't buy them and go high negative cash flow!!!you guys are hilarious on here; never a fact or a piece of analysis just the "they aren't making any more land" and "your paying your landlords mortage"I Have a bet that proves you are full of nonsense:I will sell you my rental condo, 540 N May #3138 Mesa AZ for $155000.00 3br2ba do your own comps that is under comparable sales or an appraisal today. 2 miles to asu, rents 900-950 a month. 20% down and I will finance you myself at 6% for five years... ( I own it outright) If its such a great time to buy, step up! thats below any other listing for that size condo, and your getting zero points and fees on the loan, hell I wont verify income or anything!

which comp sold for $93 a square foot??? does everyone on this board just make things up? The under $100k sale is 687 square foot (1 bedroom)mine is 1306 sq foot(3bedrooms)... Jarrod Chambers is that an example of your expert real estate abiliity??But ironically, you just proved my point! Now is still a terrible time to buy!!!

I don't tell anyone to follow my advise, I give them the facts, wherby the truth is obvious. But, hey, then ignore Dr. Shiller, virtually every trained economist working in real estate that isn't employed by NAR, all of the home builders economists (if you can get them off of the depression and suicide hotlines), and YOUR OWN COMMON SENSE!!!NW may not get hit as hard as the rest of the country, but your job market does not make you immune to carte-blanche changes in the lending industry!

In 1992, I bought the last 4 homes a desperate homebuilder was selling in a neighborhood here in the PHX valley, including the sales model. In order to not piss off the recent purchasers, The builder charged me the full price on 3, and gifted the final one to me for free! He also threw in every possible incentive and upgrade known to mankind! Are there lower then rate sheet prices available when the going gets tough? you betcha! And to the whiny builders agent on the board, like anyone cared when they were taking lottery numbers and raising the price every 5th buyer... Its called a free market buddy, learn to love it!

send some explanation along with your lowball offer:such as a market comping showing there are x number of similar priced homes that have all stayed on the market for y days.... print out the zillow price change over the last month or two, etc.Lowballing on a vacant home generally works better then one someone is still living in... (as someone is losing money and receiving nothing in return) Send offers to REO property, banks like to get it off their balance sheet so they may consider lowballs if nothing else shows up...And be patient; more homes are coming for sale in most markets, and people are waking up to the fact that real estate in most USA markets is getting a painfull enema right now; By not accepting your lowball today, they may be doing you a favor!

Every market correction takes "unexpected" turns...even though I sometimes say how much I think homes will go down, it is really just a pure guess and so is this piece.However, I do think, just like on the way up the cycle reinforces itself, it will do so again on the way down:If home prices drop 20%, we will see a whole different species of foreclosures, people who just don't care anymore. Right now we are seeing foreclosures from people who can't pay their mortgage, but if you 500K home has dropped 100K, even if you could struggle and pay the mortgage, would you? Is the credit rating really worth 100K? Let me put it to you this way: I would gladly sell my 820 credit score for $100,000 today! I could buy a very nice retirement home in northern thailand for that, and live off of my rental income!