jonestim's Advice

As a potential buyer I would want the credit.  I'll be painting over the neutral walls before I move in, and would prefer a house without carpet. The credit would help me put in a flooring I actually wanted.

http://www.centraloregonrealtors.com/results/dsp_bareland.cfm(EDIT: sorry - I thought the question was land LISTINGS, not sales.)For sales, i don't know of a great way, but you may be able to find a lot for sale on Zillow in the same neightborhood, then in the lower part of the right column there is a "See sales similar to (address)" that will list lots that have sold nearby.  

It seems that homes are often selling for about 1/3 less than the zestimate in Bend, but it varies widely.   Some are selling for or very close to it, others are selling for 50% or less of it.Link to recently sold and their zestimates in Bend I would say they are not accurate enough in Bend to pay them much attention.

ZEA0S,I'm not sure where you came up with $1125 a month for rent, but as far as I can tell she is talking about a 1000 sq ft home according to edited facts on Zillow (only 896 according to the county clerk site) with no garage on Columbia with a 15 year loan on it.  Other ones on that block that are a similar size - I'm not sure about condition - are  currently renting for between $750 and $850.   I previously lived across the alley and a few doors down in a 1450 sq ft home with a two car garage that is currently renting for $920.  Rents in Bend have dropped about $100/mo in that price range in the last year.  We don't know if that will continue, stagnate or go up in the next few years.  There are still lots of vacancies and 14% unemployment so I wouldn't think they are going up.   She wouldn't, as you say "have someone else paying the mortgage," but would have someone paying a bit over half of the mortgage.Once figuring in the mortgage, $1900 yearly tax she is looking at being in the hole $500-700 a month when it is rented, more when it isn't.  Hopefully it doesn't need a roof any time soon, new appliances or a paint job which all cost money.If they can afford the 20% down, the higher mortgage on the new place AND the extra $500-700/mo plus maintenance on the rental then yes, it would pay off in the years to come - quite well after 8 years when the note is paid for.    If that amount of money was a stretch and it turned out that they needed to sell it in two to three years when the market is down further, after losing money on it every month,  than no - it wouldn't have been a good idea.  If that were the case, a smarter idea would have been to sell it now.We don't know the full financial situation, so to say it is a "no brainer" is wrong.  

8.  Don't assume that a "stock" or even "semi-custom" plan is the best option for your site and your family.   Many of these plans are designed with selling features in mind, not actual livability.   As an example, which is better - a 2300 sq ft home with a living room, family room, dining room and nook or a 2000 sq ft home with only a "great room?"      From a marketing standpoint, the first is far superior.  From a livability standpoint it would be hard to tell without studying the floor and site plans.  What if the bigger home had a living room with only one small window, with the front entry opening directly in it, and the need for circulation dictating that you can't actually place your furniture in the room? - that's a space you won't use because it's just miserable to be in.   The smaller home may be better thought out, have more usable space, have better light, be cheaper to build and heat, and make you the buyer much happier.     Many subdivision spec homes in my area should never have been built.  The floor plans would be laughable except for the waste of resources spent to build these homes.Don't build based just on the numbers.  Think about how you will use the space, how the sun will hit it, what your views will be, where furniture will go and how it will fit.  Think about how efficient the circulation is - how much of your floor space is taken up by long corridors that could have been eliminated by a better plan?  Is there an entry way to greet guests, hang coats and put shoes?  Is a quarter of the floor space wasted because the designer decided to put some wall at a 45 degree angle in the entry not realizing it could screw up the dining space two rooms away?Don't assume that because a builder is showing you a plan that it is good.

Dory,I think you have the right idea - sell it and be done with it.   http://www.zillow.com/local-info/OR-Bend-home-value/r_50962/If we are losing value at about 18% a year - also supported by the local MLS data - it is about 1.5% a month.  On a home currently valued at $260-$300k that is losing about $4k-$4.5k a month on average.   I heard of a a couple who put their home on the market a few months ago and had an offer for less than two months depreciation below what they were asking.   They turned it down, and now the couple is having marital issues because of the stress and will be lucky to get an offer equal to the first one - they will probably end up selling for less than it.Sometimes it's just better to cut and run - especially when prices are still dropping so much.     What is your "worst case scenario?"   Still holding the house in 6 months?  12?   Even if home prices only drop by 12% in the next year that could be more than $30k.    We are already back to between 2004 and late 2003 prices in most parts of town.  A 12% drop will put us  to early 2002 medians, and an 18% drop in 12 months would put us to early 2001 medians.  You bought in 2003 - have you made significant improvements to the property?I guess it all depends what you think is going to happen in the next few years.   In January we had the highest number of NODs ever in Deschutes county.  More than 10% of mortgage holders here are behind. The home buyer tax credit is supposed to expire this spring.  Interest rates may go up.  We still have 14% unemployment.  All of those point to lower home prices in the next year. Good luck with whatever you decide.

Out of curiosity, are you thinking about renting it out because it will pay for itself as a rental, or are you wanting to hold onto it until a recovery happens?

1.    It depends where you are and how you measure home prices.   In some places prices have indeed gone up very slightly, but in many places the prices are still going down at an annualized rate of over 20%.  In other prices the median price has gone up, but due to the mix of homes - more high end stuff selling than a year ago - while the actual price of each home is going down.2.  If you expect interest rates to rise substantially it would be wise to wait to buy.   Home prices will decrease because of it due to simple economics. For the same house it is better to buy it cheap with expensive money than to pay too much with cheap money.  You can always refinance if rates drop significantly, but you can't go back and pay less for the house.  If you have to sell when rates are high the new buyer will not be able to pay as much for your house and you may end up underwater.3.  This will be good for me.   I have 25% to put down and this will remove people from the market.    Less buyers for the same number of homes equals cheaper houses.   4.  Most economists believe that house prices will drop after the credit expires - including those of the NAR, which is why they lobbied so hard to get the credit extended.     You will get a better deal if you wait.If you are thinking about buying a home you should do a bunch more research.   Sitting the fence now could save you from buying a depreciating asset or foreclosing in a few years.

I don't know anything about the market in Western Mass, but around here (Bend, OR) it is not a good time to build.Yes, the construction is cheaper than it was a few years ago due to materials and labor being cheaper but home prices are falling drastically.  They are now below construction/replacement costs so as of last fall some banks stopped doing construction loans and most others require 35% down.   This change was necessitated because in a number of cases people that built while only putting 20% down were foreclosing before they moved in due to lack of available financing since home prices dropped 20% in a year. When it came time to move from a construction loan to a conventional loan there were no loans available and the bank had to foreclose on the construction loan.  In these cases the consumers spend in the order of $100k and a year of their life only to end up never living in the home and having a foreclosure on their record.  I don't know if this has happened in other parts of the country, and I don't know if it is an issue in Western Mass.If things there are not as dire and you do decide to have a home designed and built for you, you should check out http://theslowhome.com/  including many of the old projects.    It is a great resource for thinking about home design/layout and does a good job showing how bad most of the cookie-cutter homes that are built in this country really are.

Agree with Lady Chattel.A lender I had talked to a couple years ago showed me similar math on how much I was "throwing away" by renting.  It was close to $50k that first year.Now I'm still renting, home prices are still falling, and he is in default on his home.I wasn't sure if he was an idiot or a liar.  I could argue against every one of your points, but it's not worth it.