Home sales have so far failed to launch in 2015. And according to our November home sales forecast, we don’t expect that to change during the last two months of the year. But the question remains: Will sales finally takeoff in 2016?
October new home sales rebounded from a disappointing September, increasing 10.7 percent to 495,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) – almost exactly in line with expectations. Still, the October surge was insufficient to overcome a generally lackluster year.
October new home sales recorded a much larger than expected monthly gain in October, the third straight month new home sales and existing home sales moved in opposite directions.
The October Case-Shiller forecast predicts 0.4 percent MoM growth in the 10- and 20-City Indices (SA) and a 0.8 percent monthly gain in the national index.
Today, the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the10- and 20-City Composites rose 5 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. National Index rose 4.9 percent year-over-year.
Seemingly every month for the past year, a strong jump in existing home sales has been followed by a strong decline, and then vice versa the next month.