Zillow Forecast: March Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 2.6% Decline from One Year Ago

Posted by: Stan Humphries    Tags:      Posted date:  May 25, 2012  

On Tuesday, May 29th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for March will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from February to March will be 0.3 percent for both the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.

This will be the second month in a row where both of the Case-Shiller composite indices show monthly appreciation on a seasonally adjusted basis. However prices are still down from year ago levels. Most likely, there will be some see-sawing in home prices along the bottom before we start to see a more sustained recovery.

Note, Zillow’s April 2012 data was released today – a full month ahead of Case-Shiller data.

About the author
Stan Humphries
Stan is Zillow's Chief Economist. To learn more about Stan, click here.