Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 5.3% Increase from One Year Ago

Posted by: Stan Humphries    Tags:      Posted date:  January 25, 2013  

On Tuesday, January 29th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 4.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be 0.3 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below.

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To forecast the Case-Shiller indices we use past data from Case-Shiller, as well as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available a month in advance of Case-Shiller numbers, paired with foreclosure re-sale numbers, which we also have available a month prior to Case-Shiller numbers. Together, these data points enable us to reliably forecast the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite indices. The ZHVI does not include foreclosure re-sales and closed 2012 (December) with home values up 5.9% from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to moderate in 2013, rising only 3.3 percent from December 2012 to December 2013. Further details on our forecast can be found here.

Zillow’s December 2012 data can be found here. The December 2012 edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, administered by Pulsenomics, which surveys more than 100 professional forecasters quarterly to forecast the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for the next five years, can be found here and provides long term insight into where the Case-Shiller National Index will be headed.

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About the author
Stan Humphries
Stan is Zillow's Chief Economist. To learn more about Stan, click here.