Zillow Forecast: October Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.5% Decline from One Year Ago

Posted by: Stan Humphries    Tags:  , , , , , ,     Posted date:  December 20, 2011  

The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for October will be released on Tuesday, the 27th of December. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 3.2 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from September to October will be -0.8 percent and -0.7 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the October Zillow Home Value Index data, which was released on Tuesday, December 13th, and national foreclosure resales.

While home values are still down on a year-over-year basis, the pace of depreciation has slowed dramatically since the start of this year.  In the October ZHVI data, on a monthly basis, home values fell 0.3 percent nationally, 0.5 percent in the Composite-20 metro regions, and 0.5 percent in the Composite-10 metro regions.  Existing home sales improved in October, and consumer confidence increased in November, while remaining at low levels in general. High rates of negative equity, unemployment, and a quickened pace of foreclosures, which had been kept artificially low since the rob-signing controversy, continue to put downward pressure on home values. We expect to see another 2 percent to 4 percent depreciation before reaching the bottom in late 2012, early 2013.

About the author
Stan Humphries
Stan is Zillow Group's Chief Analytics Officer. To learn more about Stan, click here.

Related Posts