Zillow Forecast: October Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.5% Decline from One Year Ago

The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for October will be released on Tuesday, the 27th of December. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 3.2 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from September to October will be -0.8 percent and -0.7 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the October Zillow Home Value Index data, which was released on Tuesday, December 13th, and national foreclosure resales.

While home values are still down on a year-over-year basis, the pace of depreciation has slowed dramatically since the start of this year.  In the October ZHVI data, on a monthly basis, home values fell 0.3 percent nationally, 0.5 percent in the Composite-20 metro regions, and 0.5 percent in the Composite-10 metro regions.  Existing home sales improved in October, and consumer confidence increased in November, while remaining at low levels in general. High rates of negative equity, unemployment, and a quickened pace of foreclosures, which had been kept artificially low since the rob-signing controversy, continue to put downward pressure on home values. We expect to see another 2 percent to 4 percent depreciation before reaching the bottom in late 2012, early 2013.