Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Posted by: Stan Humphries    Tags:  , , ,     Posted date:  November 22, 2011  

The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released on Tuesday, the 29th of November. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be -0.2% and 0.0% for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the September Zillow data on the Zillow Home Value Index and national foreclosure resales.

This forecast is in line with the trend in the Zillow Home Value Index reported in the Q3 Zillow Real Estate Market Report. While home values are still down on a year-over-year basis, the pace of depreciation has slowed dramatically since the start of this year.  In the Q3 ZHVI data, on a monthly basis, home values fell 0.1% nationally, 0.3% in the Composite-20, and 0.3% in the Composite-10.  Existing home sales declined in September, however were up from their year ago levels, and increased in October. Consumer confidence has been very low these past months and has further declined in October. We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high and as the pace of foreclosures, kept artificially low since the robo-signing controversy, increases again.


About the author
Stan Humphries
Stan is Zillow's Chief Economist. To learn more about Stan, click here



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