Peak season is over, and for many agents the work shifts to keeping current deals moving while prospecting before the holiday freeze. Today, that shift is set against the backdrop of elevated inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty, and mortgage rates above 7%.

So it’s no surprise that both buyers and sellers are pulling back. Mortgage purchases were down in early September, and August new listings fell nearly 8% from July. Here are three trends and tactics to consider while you’re working through the end of the selling season. 

Inventory is building up in the metros with the shortest selling seasons

Inventory is building more in two types of markets.

It's fastest in northern metros where the selling window closes early — Buffalo (+23%), Minneapolis (+21%), Cleveland (+16.4%) — and high-cost metros where affordability is challenging buyers, like Seattle (+23.7%) and Boston (+14.8%). In the first group, you're racing a calendar. In the second, you're pricing against softer demand that’s unlikely to bounce back in spring.

Consider: In these markets, try running list-or-wait outreach across your whole seller pipeline now. Everywhere else, the same seller outreach can still work — you're just likely leading with "your competition is thinner now than next spring" instead of "your window is closing."

Some shoppers likely gave up and rented when rates kept climbing

Mortgage rates have climbed steadily since February. Many buyers walked as owning got more expensive.

Newly pending sales went from up 7.5% YoY in June, to up 0.3% in July, to down 2.6% in August. Many of those leads signed leases for another year, but rent got more expensive too — rents rose 2.5% from February to August, nationally.

Consider: Many of the buyers who fell out of the funnel this summer also signed leases this summer, and 12 months is the most common term. That puts their renewal decision next summer, with the landlord's offer arriving about 90 days ahead of it. Build a call list now and work it in spring. If they’re facing a rent increase and deciding whether to sign another year, that’s a good conversation to be a part of.

Waiting may be worth less than your seller thinks

Over the past year, the typical U.S. home value rose about $356 a month. That’s a step up from the year before, when values were nearly flat. But it’s well under half the gain in the last full pre-pandemic year, and it’s about one tenth of the gain in 2021.

At today’s pace, a seller who waits six months to list gains only about $2,100 — and lists in spring, when inventory peaks and more homes compete with theirs. 

Consider: Waiting for a better price used to pay, and some sellers still expect it to. Walk them through what's changed — the appreciation math, then their carrying costs — and be straight with them if waiting is genuinely neutral. Then try asking what would have to happen before they'd list. If you can solve it, you've got your next steps. If you can't, get an early-spring follow-up on the calendar.