June Case-Shiller: As Expected, Slowdown Continues
Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) June 10- and 20-City Composites each rose 8.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last month. On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites fell -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, from May to June. The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.
“Today’s Case-Shiller data continues the national slowing trend we’ve been seeing for much of the past few months. But a broader look at more recent data shows that local dynamics, and not larger national trends, are once again determining individual market performance,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Different markets boast sometimes dramatically different fundamentals, including differences in the balance between buyers and sellers, varying levels of inventory, faster or slower paces of appreciation and wider or narrower gaps between asking prices and selling prices. Some markets are gaining momentum, others are very hot but beginning to cool and still more are somewhere in between. Consumers looking at these national numbers should not assume they apply evenly to their local market.”
Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the May Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.