February Case-Shiller: A Slight Slowdown

By Svenja Gudell on 26 Apr 2016

Growth in home prices was slightly slower in February compared to January, according to the February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, in line with our expectations for a slight slowdown.

Today, all three headline February Case-Shiller indices registered annual and monthly growth rates that were lower than those recorded in January. The 20-City Composite index rose 5.4 percent from February 2015 through February 2016, down from 5.7 percent annual growth in January. The 10-City Composite and National Case-Shiller indices grew at 4.6 percent and 5.3 percent year-over-year, respectively, in February, down from 5.1 percent and 5.4 percent in January.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City February Case-Shiller indices were up 0.6 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in February from January. The national index grew 0.4 percent from January. In January, the 10-city, 20-city and national indices grew 0.7 percent, 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of February Case-Shiller data, along with the actual February Case-Shiller numbers released today.

Home prices continue to rise at a steady, largely sustainable clip. But a deeper look at recent housing trends reveals a few troubling issues set to impact first-time and move-up buyers in the critical months ahead. Inventory of entry-level and middle-tier homes is down sharply, and home prices in those segments are rising more quickly as demand stays strong and the economy keeps chugging along. At the same time, inventory at the top of the market is more available, and prices are growing far more slowly. Heading into spring, buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find somewhat softening prices, a larger selection of homes to choose from and more limited competition. But entry-level and mid-market buyers – typically the housing market’s bread and butter – are likely to face stiff competition, rapidly rising prices and very limited inventory. The patience of many buyers will be tested in coming months.