Home price appreciation accelerated again to start the year as demand holds strong and the number of listings on the market continues to drop to new record lows.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 19.2% year-over-year in January, up from the rate set in December. In both the 10- and 20-city (non-seasonally adjusted) indices annual appreciation also rose. Rates for the 10-city index rose from 17.1% in December to 17.5% in January and for the 20-city composite index from 18.6% to 19.1%. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index accelerated up 1.6% from December, while the 10- and 20-city indices were both up 1.8% month-over-month.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 2/22/22 | ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 3/29/22 |
HISTORICAL MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.2% | 17.5% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.8% | 19.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.9% | 19.2% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
Though home sales have remained at elevated levels, rising mortgage rates, rapidly increasing home values, and fierce competition for listings may have some potential buyers rethinking whether they’re going to take the plunge into the market. Looking to the months ahead, competition between buyers will be intense. Homes that went pending this winter typically did so in less than two weeks, an unseasonably fast pace. For those hoping there would be a big enough wave of sellers listing their homes this spring to ease some of the most competitive conditions we’ve ever seen, there’s no sign yet of that being the case. New listings are coming onto the market below levels we’ve seen in the weeks leading up to the shopping season of years past. In the short term, it all adds up to what is looking to be another few months of a history-making for-sale market.
Annual growth in February as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate slightly in the 10-city index and remain unchanged in the national and 20-city indices. Monthly growth in February is expected to decelerate from January in the national and 10-city indices, and hold steady in the 20-city index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 26.
| INDEX | ACTUAL JANUARY CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER FEBRUARY INDICES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.8% | 1.7% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.5% | 17.6% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.8% | 1.8% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.1% | 19.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.0% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.2% | 19.2% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.