January Case-Shiller: Home Prices Started 2016 the Same Way they Ended 2015

By Svenja Gudell on 29 Mar 2016

Year-over-year home price growth at the start of 2016 looked identical to the end of 2015, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (SPCS). Today, all three headline January Case-Shiller indices registered annual growth in January at the same pace as that recorded in December.

The 20-City Composite index rose 5.7 percent from January 2015 through January 2016. The 10-City Composite and National Case-Shiller indices grew at 5.1 and 5.4 percent annually, respectively, in January.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City SPCS indices were up 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in January from December. The national index grew 0.5 percent from December (seasonally adjusted). Monthly and annual December Case-Shiller results were in line with Zillow’s forecasts published in February.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of January Case-Shiller data, along with the actual January Case-Shiller numbers released today.

The pace of U.S. home value growth has been picking up bit-by-bit over the past few months, driven in large part by stubbornly low inventory in most markets that creates competition and drives up prices for those homes that are available. This does create some challenges for home buyers, particularly first-time and lower-income buyers, struggling to find a home that both fits their needs and their budget. But looking at the bigger picture, there’s not much else to worry about in housing at the moment. Economic growth hasn’t been overwhelming, but it has been consistent, and as long as wages and job opportunities keep rising, the housing market should remain fairly stable and healthy.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales.