Zillow Research

January Existing Home Sales: Defying Conventional Wisdom

Despite all conventional wisdom that might point to the opposite, extremely tight inventory conditions aren’t holding back the booming housing market at the beginning of the year. Homes sold in January went off the market at an unseasonably fast pace – a full month faster than the pace of sales in January 2020, immediately prior to the onset of the pandemic in the U.S. – and, after a modest slowdown to end 2021, home price appreciation has re-accelerated to begin the year. Combined, these figures clearly demonstrate that competition for housing remains essentially as hot as ever — and, potentially, that sales volumes to start this year may be even more juiced as buyers look to lock in deals before mortgage interest rates rise even higher. It remains very unclear, however, how long sales can keep growing when there is just so little supply available to purchase, and it’s crystal clear at this point that the market is starving for more inventory. At the current sales pace, there are only 1.6 months of housing supply available, the lowest ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors. The good news is there are multiple directions from which additional inventory might come, however slowly: From new construction, from an aging Boomer population choosing to downsize and list their homes, from people feeling more confident listing as pandemic fears subside and/or from those sellers looking to capitalize on huge gains in equity over the past few years. The other good news is that even despite very limited selection, buyers are finding ways to get deals done, keeping sales volume elevated heading into the spring shopping season.

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