Zillow Research

Rapid Reaction: January New Home Sales

After the drop in existing home sales last month, additional weakness in new home sales is not what the market wanted or needed to see as we begin thinking about the spring home shopping season. New home sales data in particular has proven to be fairly volatile, so it’s possible some of this initially reported weakness may be revised in coming months. It’s also possible bad weather kept some buyers away earlier in the month. And if we’re stretching to find a silver lining, very modest gains in the West means activity didn’t fall where it is arguably needed the most. Still, this report is undoubtedly disappointing. Like 2017, 2018 isn’t setting up to be particularly favorable for builders – construction materials and permitting costs are high and rising, labor is tight, and desirable, buildable land is scarce and expensive. At this point, any new housing supply is welcome, even if it’s at the generally higher price points today’s builders are hitting. It seems clear that we shouldn’t expect a big breakthrough in new home sales any time soon, and should instead look for incremental progress at best. At this point, we’ll take whatever we can get.

About the author

Aaron is a Senior Economist at Zillow. To learn more about Aaron, click here.
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