July Case-Shiller: Two Straight Years of Stable Growth

By Svenja Gudell on 27 Sep 2016

July Case-Shiller data revealed a national housing market continuing to grow at a steady annual pace in line with both prior months and with our expectations.

Seasonally adjusted home prices in the 10- and composite indices dipped 0.1 percent in July from June, and stayed flat in the 20-city composite index. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 4.2 percent and the 20-city index was up 5.0 percent. The annual rate of appreciation in both smaller indices has largely hovered near those levels, fluctuating up or down by mere tenths of a percentage point each month, since the beginning of the year.

Seasonally adjusted prices in the larger, national index were up 0.4 percent in July from June. On an annual basis, July Case-Shiller data showed the U.S. national index up 5.1 percent from July 2015 through July 2016, up slightly from 5 percent annual growth in June. According to a statement from S&P Dow Jones, which publishes the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, all three major indices have been rising at a roughly 5 percent annual pace for the past 24 months. The national home price index is just 0.6 percent below its July 2006 peak level.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of July Case-Shiller data, along with the actual July Case-Shiller numbers released today.

Today’s release shows that home prices continue to grow at a steady pace. This price growth is, among other factors, supported by solid gains in incomes. In fact, the latest household income numbers hold good news: for the first time in recent memory, income growth is keeping pace with and even slightly exceeding home value growth nationwide. The bad news: incomes are so far behind that they need to do a lot of catching up before homes become more affordable, especially for those at the bottom of the income distribution and in the country’s most expensive markets.