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Summer Kicks Off With an Unseasonably Cool Rental Market

By Orphe Divounguy on 17 Jul 2025

• U.S. rent growth in June was historically subdued, with typical asking rents rising only 2.9% year-over-year to $2,069. Rent growth slowed from 3.1% in May. Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast (ZORF) now projects 2025 rent growth at 2.7% for single-family homes and just 1.3% for multifamily units—both down sharply from 2024.
• Rental concessions hit a record high for June, with 35% of listings offering perks like free rent or parking—an all-time high for the month—signaling continued market softness despite cumulative rent growth of 35.3% over five years.
• Rising inventory in the for-sale market is helping to rebalance the rental market, as would-be buyers gain negotiating power, reducing pressure on rents.

June typically marks peak heat in the rental market, as end of school and lease lapses lead to more renters moving during the summer months. Yet, this June has proven to be unseasonably cool. The typical asking rent in the U.S. reached $2,069, increasing just 0.3% in June from May – down from the 0.4% month-over-month increase in May.

Even the single-family rental market, which has been the primary driver of rent growth amid ongoing affordability challenges for would-be buyers, showed signs of moderating. Rents for single-family homes increased 0.3% in June, and are now 3.6% higher than a year ago, marking an even more modest pace than last month. Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast (ZORF) for single-family rentals has been revised downward slightly. Single-family ZORF is now projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024. Multifamily ZORF is now forecast at 1.3%, down from 2.4% in 2024.

As inventory builds back up in the for-sale market, buyers are gaining negotiating power, which means aspiring homebuyers who have been sidelined in recent years now have more options to consider. The recent boom in multifamily construction, too, has given renters more options. Together, these factors are lifting some pressure off of the national rental market, as well as in many local markets. Rents have increased less than 1% since last year in ten major markets, mostly located in the Sun Belt, where multifamily construction has been strong.

A symptom of a cooling rental market, rental concessions held steady at 35% in June, marking the highest share of concessions of any June on record. Concessions, which can include offers of free parking or weeks of free rent, can help to bring rental affordability within reach for some renters. Though rent growth has cooled significantly, renters are still feeling the squeeze. With rents having increased 35.3% over the last five years, the median household would now need to spend 30.1% of their income to afford the typical rent – roughly at the commonly accepted threshold for rent burden.

Whether this rebalancing in the rental market will continue through the summer will ultimately depend on macroeconomic factors. Historically, wage growth is linked to higher housing demand and tighter housing markets. Should the labor market cool further, residential mobility would continue to slow, dragging home prices and rents lower.

Rents

• The typical asking rent was $2,069 in June, up 0.3% month-over-month. The pre-pandemic average month-over-month change for this time of year is 0.6%.
• Since the beginning of the pandemic, rents have increased by 36.1%.
• Rents are now 2.9% up from last year.
• Rents fell, on a monthly basis, in 6 major metro areas. The largest monthly drops were in Houston (-0.4%), Tampa (-0.4%), New Orleans (-0.2%), Phoenix (-0.2%), and San Antonio (-0.1%).
• Rents are up from year-ago levels in 46 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual rent increases are highest in Providence (6.2%), Chicago (6%), Indianapolis (5.4%), Cleveland (5.1%), and Birmingham (4.9%).

Single-Family Rents

• The typical asking rent for single-family homes was $2,324 in June, up 0.3% month-over-month. Since the beginning of the pandemic, single-family rents have increased by 43.5%.
• Single-family rents are now up 3.6% from last year.
• Single-family rents fell, on a monthly basis, in 4 major metro areas. The largest monthly drops in single-family rents were in Hartford (-0.1%), Phoenix (-0.1%), Houston (-0.1%), and San Antonio (-0.1%).
• Single-family rents are up from year-ago levels in 49 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual single-family rent increases are highest in Indianapolis (6.8%), Providence (6.7%), Kansas City (6%), Chicago (5.9%), and Cleveland (5.6%).

Multifamily Rents

• The typical asking rent for multifamily homes is $1,887 in June, up 0.3% month-over-month. Since the beginning of the pandemic, multifamily rents have increased by 29.5%.
• Multifamily rents are now up 2.3% from last year.
• Multifamily rents fell, on a monthly basis, in 11 major metro areas. The largest monthly drops in multifamily rents were in Houston (-0.7%), Tampa (-0.7%), New Orleans (-0.6%), Phoenix (-0.3%), and Austin (-0.2%).
• Multifamily rents are up from year-ago levels in 43 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual multifamily rent increases are highest in Providence (6.2%), Chicago (5.9%), San Francisco (4.6%), Pittsburgh (4.3%), and Virginia Beach (4.3%).

Rent Concessions

• 35.2% of rentals on Zillow offered concessions in June.
• The share of rental listings offering concessions increased by 0.1ppts month-over-month in June.
• The share of rental listings offering concessions increased by 2.3ppts from last year.
• The share of rentals with concessions was lower, on a monthly basis, in 24 major metro areas. The largest monthly drops in the share of rentals with concessions were in Richmond (-2.6ppts), Seattle (-2.5ppts), Washington (-2.4ppts), Birmingham (-2.1ppts), and Austin (-2ppts).
• The share of rentals with concessions was higher, on a monthly basis, in 26 major metro areas. The largest monthly increases in the share of rentals with concessions were in Memphis (4ppts), Columbus (3.8ppts), Los Angeles (2.7ppts), Phoenix (2.2ppts), and Oklahoma City (2.1ppts).
• Rent concessions are up from year-ago levels in 38 of the 50 largest metro areas. The annual increase in share of rental listings with concessions is highest in Denver (13.4ppts), Austin (11.1ppts), Houston (10.9ppts), Orlando (10.9ppts), and Memphis (8.8ppts).

Rent Affordability

• The median household would spend 30.1% of their income on a new rental in June. A year ago, the median household would have spent 30.2% of their income on a new rental. 
• The pre-pandemic share of median household income spent on rent was 28%.
• The most affordable metro areas for rents are Austin (20.2%), Minneapolis (20.3%), Raleigh (21.0%), Salt Lake City (21.0%), and St. Louis (21.2%).
• The least affordable metro areas for rents are New York (42.0%), Miami (40.7%), Los Angeles (36.7%), San Diego (33.5%), and Tampa (33.4%).

• The income needed to afford rent increased by 2.9% year-over-year in June to $82,743. Since pre-pandemic, the income needed to afford rent has increased by 34.8%.