June Case-Shiller Results: Climbing Faster Than Forecast
Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Index for home prices showed stronger growth than expected in June, gaining 0.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) from May and 5.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted) year-over-year. The index continues to reach new all-time highs every month.
The smaller 10-city index showed no month-over-month change in June and gained 4.9 percent from a year earlier, while the 20-city index gained 0.1 percent month-over-month and increased 5.7 percent from a year ago. Below are Zillow’s forecasts alongside the results and our historical median absolute error for each index.
High-level data on the U.S. housing market paints a clear picture of a market that continues to put the worst effects of the Great Recession in the rear view – home buying demand is sky high, home prices have been growing for years, and the median home in many large markets is worth more than ever. But a more detailed look at the data paints a starker picture. Nationwide, less than half (48 percent) of all individual homes are worth more today than they were prior to the recession. And while 90 percent or more of individual homes in some hot markets like San Jose and Denver are worth more now than a decade ago, in other markets that were harder-hit, things are far more bleak. Less than one percent of all homes in Las Vegas, for example, are currently worth more than they used to be. As the market overall continues to heal, it’s critical to remember that the scars of the recession remain all too real and raw for millions of U.S. homeowners and in dozens of communities nationwide.