May Case-Shiller: Prices Fall for Second Straight Month on 10 & 20-City Indices

By Svenja Gudell on 26 Jul 2016

May Case-Shiller data showed a slight slowdown in home price growth, as expected, with seasonally adjusted prices falling somewhat from April on the 10- and 20-city indices.

Seasonally adjusted home prices in both the 10- and 20-city composite indices fell in May from April (-0.2 percent for the 10-City; -0.1 percent for the 20-city), the second consecutive monthly decline in both indices (according to re-stated data released today). The consecutive monthly declines in the 20-city index were the first since June and July, 2014; seasonally adjusted monthly prices in the 10-city index haven’t fallen for two consecutive months since January and February, 2012. Seasonally adjusted prices in the larger, national index were up 0.2 percent in May from April.

On an annual basis, May Case-Shiller data showed the 20-City Composite index up 5.2 percent from May 2015 through May 2016, down from 5.4 percent annual growth in April. The 10-City Composite index grew 4.4 percent year-over-year in May, down from 4.7 percent in April. The U.S. National Case-Shiller index grew 5 percent year-over-year, unchanged from April.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of May Case-Shiller data, along with the actual May Case-Shiller numbers released today.

Today’s Case-Shiller data paints a picture of a fairly calm and consistent market that looks much the same today as it has for the past few months. But while the market does look pretty stable from 10,000 feet, a closer look reveals a number of imbalances that are keeping the heat on the housing market this summer. Sellers are in the driver’s seat, as buyers contend with fierce competition and very fast-moving markets. Demand is sky high and the number of homes sold is rising, even as inventory of homes for sale keeps falling. Buyers looking to purchase a more expensive home are better positioned than those seeking an entry-level home. And home buyers in coastal markets, particularly on the West Coast, are experiencing very different conditions than those in Middle America. The tough buyers’ market we’ve been experiencing shows few signs of letting up as we enter the dog days of August.