In 2021, Americans intensified a trend begun in 2020 of moving to more affordable areas, as rapidly rising home values and more remote-working jobs continue to push people to seek out locales where their home-buying dollar goes farther. But some of 2020’s most popular destinations, including Phoenix and Austin, have gotten so expensive, so quickly that they are losing some of their appeal as affordable options.
The average interstate mover in 2021 moved to a ZIP code where homes were about $35,800 cheaper than where they came from, up from the 2020 comparable average ZIP-level price decline of about $29,500, according to a Zillow analysis of local home value data and mover data from Allied Van Lines. Before the pandemic, people tended to move to ZIP codes with very similar average prices: the average ZIP-level price change was a decrease of less than $7,500 in each year from 2016 to 2019.
The larger affordability gradient this year was driven by a remarkable rise in the average home value of people’s origin ZIP codes: it rose by 14%, to reach $480,736. But, reflecting the year’s hot housing market, the average value of homes in ZIP codes where interstate movers ended up in 2021 also rose substantially; by 13.5%, to $444,932.
| Year | Average origin ZIP home value | Average destination ZIP home value | Average ZIP-level home value change |
| 2016 | $344,309 | $342,675 | -$1,634 |
| 2017 | $369,549 | $362,117 | -$7,432 |
| 2018 | $391,327 | $390,829 | -$498 |
| 2019 | $400,305 | $394,177 | -$6,129 |
| 2020 | $421,641 | $392,112 | -$29,530 |
| 2021 | $480,736 | $444,932 | -$35,803 |
The top destinations for net inbound moves in 2021 were mid-priced growing Sunbelt metro areas, while the top origins for net outbound moves were in places that are generally colder, pricier, or both. The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area topped the rankings for the most net inbound moves in 2021, pulling in movers especially from pricey Los Angeles and chilly Chicago, as well as fast-growing Phoenix.
Origins for people moving to the top destination metro areas:
| Destination Metro | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Los Angeles, CA | Chicago, IL | Phoenix, AZ |
| Charlotte, NC | New York, NY | Chicago, IL | Washington, DC |
| Sarasota, FL | Chicago, IL | New York, NY | Washington, DC |
| Nashville, TN | Chicago, IL | Los Angeles, CA | New York, NY |
| Tampa, FL | New York, NY | Chicago, IL | Atlanta, GA |
Chicago tops the list of metro areas that originated the most net outbound moves, sending the most movers south and west to Phoenix, Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles.
Destinations for people leaving the top origin metro areas:
| Origin Metro | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Chicago, IL | Phoenix, AZ | Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Los Angeles, CA |
| Los Angeles, CA | Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Phoenix, AZ | Seattle, WA |
| New York, NY | Miami, FL | Los Angeles, CA | Tampa, FL |
| San Diego, CA | Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Phoenix, AZ | Houston, TX |
| Detroit, MI | Los Angeles, CA | Tampa, FL | Chicago, IL |
Some of 2020’s top destinations have lost their affordability edge, and now they’re attracting fewer movers. In 2020, Phoenix had the most net inbound moves among all metro areas analyzed, while Austin had the fourth-most. But in 2021, Phoenix and Austin slid to the eight and ten spots on the list of highest net destinations, respectively. That might be due to the declining number of movers experiencing large price savings, at the local level, when moving there this year.
So far in 2021, people moving into the Austin metro area are moving from ZIP codes with an average home value of $632,779, and moving into ones in the Austin area where homes are worth an average of $608,163, less than $25,000 in potential price savings. In the comparable data covering the same time frame in 2020, people moving to Austin realized ZIP-level price savings averaging more than $140,000.
This year, people moving into the Phoenix metro area are moving from ZIP codes with an average home value of $528,712, and moving into ones in the Phoenix area where homes are worth roughly the same: $526,993, on average, or only about $1,700 less. In the comparable data for 2020, people moving to Phoenix realized ZIP-level price savings averaging over $48,000.[1]
The diminished home price savings for people moving to Austin and Phoenix in 2021 reflects the likely effects of 2020’s demand surge, which drove up the cost of homes in those metro areas faster than many other major metropolitan areas, potentially shrinking the pool of movers in 2021.
Data was provided for all interstate moves that were loaded from January 1, 2016 to November 14, 2021. To maintain comparability with the time frame covered in 2021, only moves loaded by November 14 of each year were included. Home values were computed using the Zillow Home Value Index for the ZIP codes of origin and destination in the loading month for each move.
[1]Note that the destination ZIP code-level home values above were higher than Austin’s and Phoenix’s overall typical home values, likely reflecting the generally higher overall price range sought by the particular users in this data source.