Introducing Zillow’s New National Case-Shiller Forecast
- Zillow expects next week’s October Case-Shiller numbers to show the National Home Price Index up 4.8 percent year-over-year, unchanged from September.
For more than three years, Zillow has forecasted monthly and annual changes in the S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) 10- and 20-City Indices a month before actual Case-Shiller data is released. Now, we’re pleased to increase our coverage by forecasting performance of the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (HPI).
October SPCS numbers are set to be released on Tuesday, December 30. Our forecasts for the 10- and 20-City Indices were published last month. We expect both Indices to continue their recent pattern of weakening appreciation.
The national Case-Shiller Index has shown a similar trend of slowing appreciation in 2014. The graph below plots annual appreciation of the National HPI (in green) along with our forecast (in blue)[1]. Annual appreciation has consistently weakened over the course of 2014. September annual appreciation was the lowest since October 2012.
Our October forecast predicts more of the same. We expect the annual October National HPI to grow 4.8 percent year-over-year, the same as in September. Our forecast predicts no month-over-month appreciation in the non-seasonally adjusted National HPI from September to October.
The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) paints much the same picture. Annual ZHVI appreciation has shown seven straight months of slowing growth (May through November). November’s annual ZHVI growth of 6 percent was the lowest rate of any month thus far this year.
[1] The forecasts were built using ARIMAX models with several covariates including ZHVI. Each of the monthly forecasts provided were based only on data that would have been available at the time of that forecast.