Housing Data 101: Why Is the Market So Hot?
Being a home buyer in many markets these days isn’t easy. They face rising prices and incredibly limited selection, yet they continue to buy homes in sometimes surprisingly high numbers — a testament to how strong the draw of homeownership is for millions of Americans.
Sellers are in control, with buyers forced to contend with cutthroat competition and intense pressure to make a deal. People are snapping up homes in record time: In April, the typical home spent just 77 days on the market, from listing to final sale, which is notable because it often takes 30 days or more to close after an offer is accepted. That leaves just a few weeks for potential buyers to see a home, tour it and make an offer. And 77 days is the national median, so in many markets, homes are selling even more quickly.
That’s when buyers can even find a home to buy, which is increasingly difficult. Inventory has fallen year-over-year every month since February 2015 — and instead of getting better, the speed of inventory declines is getting worse.
There are many reasons for the low inventory, including:
- High demand. Employment and wages are up, and mortgage rates remain low, which makes homeownership attractive and affordable for many people. At the same time, millennials are entering their prime home-buying years and entering the market en masse. The result is heavy competition for a limited number of homes for sale, which leads to escalating prices and how homes are flying off the market.
- A home-building slowdown, especially at lower price points. New housing starts fell off a cliff after the housing collapse, dropping from almost two million completed homes in 2006 to just 600,000 in 2011. They remain below the historical average of about 1.5 million new homes built a year.
- Pockets of negative equity continue to prevent some sellers from listing — and if mortgage interest rates start to rise, other homeowners will be “locked in” where they are, reluctant to move because of the relatively low rates (and payments) they already enjoy.
- Americans are moving less than at any point in recent history, with many single-family homes that used to be owner occupied now converted into rentals that come up for sale far less frequently.
- A self-perpetuating cycle: The shortage leads to such intense competition that some potential sellers become reluctant to list, for fear of becoming buyers themselves and having to contend with those pressures.
Assuming the economy continues to chug along as it has, demand is likely to remain high and inventory low. Those expecting an overnight fix would do well not to hold their breath.
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