November Case-Shiller: Another Month of 5 Percent-Plus Growth

By Svenja Gudell on 26 Jan 2016

This morning, all three of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed annual home price growth above 5 percent in November. The November Case-Shiller data echoes a similar increase in October.

The 20-City Composite index rose 5.8 percent from November 2014 through November 2015.  The 10-City Composite and National Case-Shiller indices grew at 5.3 and 5.4 percent, respectively, in November.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 2-City indices were both up 0.9 percent in November from October. The national index grew 0.7 percent from October (seasonally adjusted). In December, Zillow accurately predicted the national index would show an increase of 0.7 percent between October and November.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of November Case-Shiller data, released in December, along with the actual November Case-Shiller numbers released today.

As the final numbers from 2015 are tallied and we look ahead at this year, the housing market in 2016 is poised to be as close to “normal” as we’ve seen for quite some time. Home value growth has largely stabilized at a sustainable level and the runaway appreciation that marked the last few years has passed, even as some markets remain much hotter than others. Rental growth has slowed significantly and is expected to slow even further, giving renters a bit of breathing room and potentially easing the transition into homeownership for some. And as local economies pick up steam, less-heralded markets in Middle America – such as Boise, Idaho, and Ogden, Utah – may become very attractive to buyers in search of good job prospects and a decent home-buying value.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales.